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Sha Tin · 2022-01-01 · 17:48

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. NAVAS TWO, ridden by R Maia and trained by R Gibson, won by 1/2, with OSCAR GLORY second and HORSESAIN BOLT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite ZONE D finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 NAVAS TWO Closed strongly CP 1.21.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · R Gibson 1 5.7 1/2
2 12 OSCAR GLORY CP V Borges · F C Lor 2 3.7 1/2
3 5 HORSESAIN BOLT B/XB B Shinn · D J Whyte 5 8.1 1
4 13 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT J Moreira · J Size 13 3.3 2-1/4
5 9 ENNEA FORTUNE Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 12 14.0 2-1/2
6 8 ZOOM BOOM Closed strongly C L Chau · D J Whyte 6 80.0 5-1/2
7 2 AMAZING CHOCOLATE Closed strongly B K Teetan · T P Yung 3 16.0 6
8 3 KINDA COOL B M Chadwick · F C Lor 7 20.0 7-1/2
9 10 KOWLOON GREAT Closed strongly TT1 A Badel · C S Shum 10 53.0 7-1/2
10 11 NOTHING IMPOSSIBLE H Bentley · K W Lui 9 150.0 7-3/4
11 7 NEVER TOO SOON Led early L Ferraris · D J Hall 11 20.0 10-1/4
12 4 MIGHTY VALOR H N Wong · P F Yiu 8 60.0 19
13 1 COBHFIELD SR/XB M F Poon · A T Millard 4 15.0 20-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NAVAS TWO2. OSCAR GLORY+0.5L3. HORSESAIN BOLT+1L4. ZONE D+2.25L5. ENNEA FORTUNE+2.5L6. ZOOM BOOM+5.5L7. AMAZING CHOCOLATE+6L8. KINDA COOL+7.5L9. KOWLOON GREAT+7.5L10. NOTHING IMPOSSIBLE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ZONE D (22.0%) finished 4th — the winner NAVAS TWO was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 ZONE D 22.0% 4.55 4
2 12 OSCAR GLORY 21.8% 4.60 2
3 5 HORSESAIN BOLT 11.7% 8.58 3
4 6 NAVAS TWO 9.6% 10.42 1
5 1 COBHFIELD 6.8% 14.71 13
6 9 ENNEA FORTUNE 6.3% 15.82 5
7 3 KINDA COOL 5.8% 17.20 8
8 2 AMAZING CHOCOLATE 4.2% 23.81 7
9 8 ZOOM BOOM 3.6% 27.50 6
10 10 KOWLOON GREAT 3.5% 28.96 9
11 7 NEVER TOO SOON 2.8% 35.87 11
12 4 MIGHTY VALOR 1.5% 65.67 12
13 11 NOTHING IMPOSSIBLE 0.5% 208.61 10
ZONE DOSCAR GLORYHORSESAIN BOLTNAVAS TWO — wonCOBHFIELDENNEA FORTUNEKINDA COOLAMAZING CHOCOLATEZOOM BOOMKOWLOON GREATNEVER TOO SOONMIGHTY VALORNOTHING IMPOSSIBLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 57.5

PLACE

5 23

6 19.5

12 16

QUINELLA

6,12 135

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 74

5,12 47.5

6,12 47.5

FORECAST

6,12 294

TIERCE

6,12,5 1,471

TRIO

5,6,12 315

FIRST 4

5,6,12,13 143

QUARTET

6,12,5,13 3,941

All pools (5 more)

10TH DOUBLE

10/6 147.5

10/12 25

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 21

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,10/5,6,12 6,318

SIX UP

6/7/5/5/10/6 2,140

6,12/7,13/3,5/5,10/5,10/6,12 309

2 [A Badel]

TREBLE

5/10/6 358

5/10/12 89