Sha Tin · 2022-01-01 · 16:38

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 11 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY WITH YOU, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/2, with GALLANT EXPRESS second and CIRCUIT STELLAR third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.87

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	LUCKY WITH YOU 1.09.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes	K Teetan	D A Hayes	2	123 lb	2.1	1-1/2
2	10	GALLANT EXPRESS E V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	3	115 lb	4.7	1-1/2
3	1	CIRCUIT STELLAR TT J Moreira · A S Cruz	J Moreira	A S Cruz	7	133 lb	9.7	2-1/4
4	4	EXCELLENT DADDY TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung	C L Chau	T P Yung	5	123 lb	5.1	2-3/4
5	7	STAR BRITE CP1 A Hamelin · K W Lui	A Hamelin	K W Lui	11	118 lb	25.0	3
6	8	GRACYLOVE M Chadwick · D J Hall	M Chadwick	D J Hall	1	117 lb	24.0	3-1/4
7	6	READY TO WIN XB/CP1/TT K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	8	118 lb	53.0	3-1/4
8	3	THE CROWN B Shinn · C Fownes	B Shinn	C Fownes	4	131 lb	18.0	4-1/2
9	2	LOCKHEED B/TT A Badel · C S Shum	A Badel	C S Shum	9	131 lb	24.0	5
10	11	ELIGERE B H T Mo · Y S Tsui	H T Mo	Y S Tsui	6	112 lb	48.0	5-1/4
11	9	TURQUOISE HOPE B1 M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan	M L Yeung	P O'Sullivan	10	117 lb	89.0	6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick LUCKY WITH YOU (36.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	LUCKY WITH YOU	36.3%	2.76	1	2.1
2	1	CIRCUIT STELLAR	14.1%	7.07	3	9.7
3	10	GALLANT EXPRESS	12.8%	7.79	2	4.7
4	4	EXCELLENT DADDY	12.7%	7.88	4	5.1
5	2	LOCKHEED	5.4%	18.63	9	24.0
6	8	GRACYLOVE	4.4%	22.61	6	24.0
7	3	THE CROWN	4.2%	23.87	8	18.0
8	11	ELIGERE	3.5%	28.22	10	48.0
9	7	STAR BRITE	3.3%	30.41	5	25.0
10	6	READY TO WIN	2.4%	42.55	7	53.0
11	9	TURQUOISE HOPE	0.9%	114.60	11	89.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 21

PLACE

1 24.5

5 11

10 15

QUINELLA

5,10 50

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 42.5

1,10 54.5

5,10 22.5

FORECAST

5,10 66

TIERCE

5,10,1 277

TRIO

1,5,10 95

FIRST 4

1,4,5,10 77

QUARTET

5,10,1,4 772

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 14.5

8TH DOUBLE

5/5 23.5

5/10 12

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