Sha Tin · 2022-01-01 · 14:01

Race 4

Group 3 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 7 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-01 was Group 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HEALTHY HAPPY, ridden by A Badel and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with LUCKY EXPRESS second and EXCELLENT PROPOSAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite EXCELLENT PROPOSAL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.10

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	HEALTHY HAPPY Closed strongly V/TT 1.22.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · F C Lor	A Badel	F C Lor	7	132 lb	6.6	N
2	4	LUCKY EXPRESS Closed strongly E/TT A Hamelin · J Size	A Hamelin	J Size	4	128 lb	10.0	N
3	6	EXCELLENT PROPOSAL Closed strongly E J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	2	125 lb	2.0	1
4	7	MASTER MONTARO B-/CP2 M L Yeung · D A Hayes	M L Yeung	D A Hayes	3	117 lb	7.3	2
5	5	DUKE WAI B/H C L Chau · P O'Sullivan	C L Chau	P O'Sullivan	5	127 lb	5.8	2-1/4
6	1	CHAMPION'S WAY P/TT K Teetan · J Size	K Teetan	J Size	1	133 lb	8.7	4
7	3	BUDDIES Led early H M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	6	131 lb	17.0	6

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick EXCELLENT PROPOSAL (35.9%) finished 3rd — the winner HEALTHY HAPPY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	EXCELLENT PROPOSAL	35.9%	2.78	3	2.0
2	5	DUKE WAI	18.9%	5.29	5	5.8
3	2	HEALTHY HAPPY	14.0%	7.16	1	6.6
4	7	MASTER MONTARO	11.0%	9.11	4	7.3
5	1	CHAMPION'S WAY	8.7%	11.45	6	8.7
6	4	LUCKY EXPRESS	7.4%	13.45	2	10.0
7	3	BUDDIES	4.0%	24.80	7	17.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 66.5

PLACE

2 19.5

4 24.5

6 11

QUINELLA

2,4 318

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 75

2,6 30

4,6 36

FORECAST

2,4 566

TIERCE

2,4,6 1,355

TRIO

2,4,6 196

FIRST 4

2,4,6,7 209

QUARTET

2,4,6,7 8,520

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 33

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE

5/2 347

5/4 57

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