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Sha Tin · 2022-01-01 · 13:31

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 EASON TT 1.09.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 4 2.9 1/2
2 0 SKY FOREVER B/TT A Badel · K L Man 3 8.0 1/2
3 0 JOYFUL GENIUS CP1 L Ferraris · D J Hall 6 8.3 3
4 0 AWESOME TREASURE M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 4.3 3
5 0 MARVEL DRAGON TT K C Leung · T P Yung 11 6.2 3
6 0 MY INTELLIGENT M F Poon · L Ho 9 22.0 3-1/4
7 0 AMBITIOUS HEART B-/TT B Shinn · T P Yung 5 21.0 5-3/4
8 0 VALIANT FORTUNE M Chadwick · C H Yip 2 47.0 5-3/4
9 0 WIN CHARM TT V Borges · K W Lui 12 137.0 6-1/2
10 0 GOOD SHOT H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 14.0 6-3/4
11 0 ACA POWER TT1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 14 112.0 7-1/4
12 0 SUPER HORNET TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 13 92.0 8
13 0 BRIGHT KID B/XB H W Lai · W Y So 7 61.0 9
14 0 ENDOWED H1 A Hamelin · J Size 10 80.0 9-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. EASON, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with SKY FOREVER second and JOYFUL GENIUS third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EASON—2. SKY FOREVER+0.5L3. JOYFUL GENIUS+3L4. AWESOME TREASURE+3L5. MARVEL DRAGON+3L6. MY INTELLIGENT+3.25L7. AMBITIOUS HEART+5.75L8. VALIANT FORTUNE+5.75L9. WIN CHARM+6.5L10. GOOD SHOT+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick EASON (31.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 EASON 31.3% 3.20 1
2 0 AWESOME TREASURE 18.1% 5.52 4
3 0 JOYFUL GENIUS 7.8% 12.82 3
4 0 SKY FOREVER 7.6% 13.23 2
5 0 MARVEL DRAGON 6.2% 16.23 5
6 0 SUPER HORNET 5.0% 20.02 12
7 0 VALIANT FORTUNE 4.7% 21.32 8
8 0 AMBITIOUS HEART 4.7% 21.43 7
9 0 ENDOWED 3.8% 26.19 14
10 0 GOOD SHOT 3.8% 26.36 10
11 0 MY INTELLIGENT 3.2% 31.45 6
12 0 ACA POWER 2.1% 47.60 11
13 0 WIN CHARM 1.1% 88.21 9
14 0 BRIGHT KID 0.7% 146.01 13
EASON — wonAWESOME TREASUREJOYFUL GENIUSSKY FOREVERMARVEL DRAGONSUPER HORNETVALIANT FORTUNEAMBITIOUS HEARTENDOWEDGOOD SHOTMY INTELLIGENTACA POWERWIN CHARMBRIGHT KID

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 29

PLACE

2 21

5 15

11 22

QUINELLA

2,5 159

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 59

2,11 86

5,11 44.5

FORECAST

5,2 253

TIERCE

5,2,11 1,057

TRIO

2,5,11 288

FIRST 4

1,2,5,11 122

QUARTET

5,2,11,1 2,891

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/2 27.5

2/5 108.5

3 PICK 1

A1 17.5

A2 —

A3 —