Sha Tin · 2022-01-01 · 13:31
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. EASON, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with SKY FOREVER second and JOYFUL GENIUS third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | EASON TT 1.09.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 4 | 2.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | SKY FOREVER B/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 3 | 8.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | JOYFUL GENIUS CP1 L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 6 | 8.3 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | AWESOME TREASURE M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 1 | 4.3 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | MARVEL DRAGON TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 11 | 6.2 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | MY INTELLIGENT M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 9 | 22.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | AMBITIOUS HEART B-/TT B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 5 | 21.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | VALIANT FORTUNE M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 2 | 47.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | WIN CHARM TT V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 12 | 137.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 14 | GOOD SHOT H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 13 | ACA POWER TT1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 14 | 112.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | SUPER HORNET TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 13 | 92.0 | 8 |
| 13 | 4 | BRIGHT KID B/XB H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 7 | 61.0 | 9 |
| 14 | 7 | ENDOWED H1 A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 10 | 80.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | EASON | 31.3% | 3.20 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | AWESOME TREASURE | 18.1% | 5.52 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 | JOYFUL GENIUS | 7.8% | 12.82 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | SKY FOREVER | 7.6% | 13.23 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | MARVEL DRAGON | 6.2% | 16.23 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | SUPER HORNET | 5.0% | 20.02 | 12 |
| 7 | 9 | VALIANT FORTUNE | 4.7% | 21.32 | 8 |
| 8 | 6 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 4.7% | 21.43 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | ENDOWED | 3.8% | 26.19 | 14 |
| 10 | 14 | GOOD SHOT | 3.8% | 26.36 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | MY INTELLIGENT | 3.2% | 31.45 | 6 |
| 12 | 13 | ACA POWER | 2.1% | 47.60 | 11 |
| 13 | 10 | WIN CHARM | 1.1% | 88.21 | 9 |
| 14 | 4 | BRIGHT KID | 0.7% | 146.01 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 29
PLACE
2 21
5 15
11 22
QUINELLA
2,5 159
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 59
2,11 86
5,11 44.5
FORECAST
5,2 253
TIERCE
5,2,11 1,057
TRIO
2,5,11 288
FIRST 4
1,2,5,11 122
QUARTET
5,2,11,1 2,891
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
2/2 27.5
2/5 108.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 17.5