Sha Tin · 2022-01-01 · 12:31

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-01 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. MISTER MONTE, ridden by H T Mo and trained by C W Chang, won by N, with LIGHT MY DAY second and LUCKY MISSILE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite INCREDIBLE finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.49.16

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	10	MISTER MONTE Closed strongly CP 1.49.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · C W Chang	H T Mo	C W Chang	14	127 lb	38.0	N
2	2	LIGHT MY DAY Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · C H Yip	B Shinn	C H Yip	13	133 lb	11.0	N
3	9	LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly CP2 L Ferraris · D J Hall	L Ferraris	D J Hall	5	129 lb	22.0	1-3/4
4	5	SKY GEM Closed strongly P K Teetan · C Fownes	K Teetan	C Fownes	8	132 lb	10.0	2-1/2
5	1	DAILY CHARM Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum	K C Leung	C S Shum	4	133 lb	6.5	2-3/4
6	14	WEALTHY EMPLOYEE Closed strongly B C Wong · K H Ting	C Wong	K H Ting	1	108 lb	37.0	3
7	12	DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	7	119 lb	16.0	3-1/2
8	6	LEGEND GOES Closed strongly B R Maia · P O'Sullivan	R Maia	P O'Sullivan	10	131 lb	44.0	4-3/4
9	11	CENTENARY IBIS Led early B/XB/TT C L Chau · A T Millard	C L Chau	A T Millard	11	116 lb	8.0	5-1/2
10	4	INCREDIBLE TT M L Yeung · T P Yung	M L Yeung	T P Yung	2	132 lb	4.2	6-1/4
11	7	OH BRAVO TT A Badel · W Y So	A Badel	W Y So	3	131 lb	10.0	6-1/4
12	3	WONDERFUL FANTASY CP A Hamelin · K W Lui	A Hamelin	K W Lui	12	133 lb	70.0	7-1/4
13	8	WAH MAY LUCK B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz	J Moreira	A S Cruz	6	131 lb	5.7	8-1/2
14	13	RIGHTEOUS WIN V-/B2 M F Poon · P F Yiu	M F Poon	P F Yiu	9	113 lb	22.0	9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick WAH MAY LUCK (18.7%) finished 13th — the winner MISTER MONTE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	WAH MAY LUCK	18.7%	5.36	13	5.7
2	4	INCREDIBLE	17.7%	5.66	10	4.2
3	5	SKY GEM	11.9%	8.40	4	10.0
4	2	LIGHT MY DAY	9.9%	10.12	2	11.0
5	7	OH BRAVO	9.5%	10.53	11	10.0
6	11	CENTENARY IBIS	8.5%	11.74	9	8.0
7	1	DAILY CHARM	6.4%	15.61	5	6.5
8	12	DIAMOND STAR	4.8%	21.02	7	16.0
9	13	RIGHTEOUS WIN	3.3%	30.29	14	22.0
10	10	MISTER MONTE	2.6%	39.07	1	38.0
11	14	WEALTHY EMPLOYEE	2.5%	40.16	6	37.0
12	9	LUCKY MISSILE	2.3%	42.68	3	22.0
13	6	LEGEND GOES	1.1%	88.03	8	44.0
14	3	WONDERFUL FANTASY	0.9%	113.28	12	70.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 388

PLACE

2 39

9 65.5

10 117

QUINELLA

2,10 2,108.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 350

2,10 588.5

9,10 1,313

FORECAST

10,2 3,459

TIERCE

10,2,9 99,937

TRIO

2,9,10 19,308

FIRST 4

2,5,9,10 28,609

QUARTET

10,2,9,5 836,189

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 23.5

A2 —

A1 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1800m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99