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Sha Tin · 2022-05-22 · 12:31

Race 1

Griffin GOOD 1200m Course A 6 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-22 was Griffin over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CIRCUIT NINE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with LUCKY BANNER second and YOUNG SPARKLE third. Victory came as the 1.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CIRCUIT NINE H/TT 1.10.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz 1 1.2 N
2 4 LUCKY BANNER TT B Shinn · C Fownes 5 17.0 N
3 7 YOUNG SPARKLE J Moreira · A T Millard 6 5.2 3
4 5 OUR PRECIOUS TT1 L Ferraris · C Fownes 2 15.0 3-1/2
5 6 SUPERB MOVE R Maia · C H Yip 3 25.0 3-3/4
6 2 FLYING SILVER CP1/TT A Badel · C S Shum 4 35.0 5-3/4
3 JOYFUL CHAMPION H T Mo · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CIRCUIT NINE2. LUCKY BANNER+0.05L3. YOUNG SPARKLE+3L4. OUR PRECIOUS+3.5L5. SUPERB MOVE+3.75L6. FLYING SILVER+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick CIRCUIT NINE (50.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CIRCUIT NINE 50.5% 1.98 1
2 7 YOUNG SPARKLE 35.2% 2.84 3
3 4 LUCKY BANNER 6.1% 16.30 2
4 5 OUR PRECIOUS 3.4% 29.42 4
5 6 SUPERB MOVE 2.7% 37.64 5
6 2 FLYING SILVER 2.0% 49.46 6
CIRCUIT NINE — wonYOUNG SPARKLELUCKY BANNEROUR PRECIOUSSUPERB MOVEFLYING SILVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 12

PLACE

1 10.1

4 43

QUINELLA

1,4 83

-

FORECAST

1,4 96

TIERCE

1,4,7 129

TRIO

1,4,7 35

FIRST 4

1,4,5,7 31

QUARTET

1,4,7,5 393