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Sha Tin · 2022-05-22 · 16:38

Race 9

Group 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-22 was Group 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CORDYCEPS SIX, ridden by A Badel and trained by R Gibson, won by N, with NERVOUS WITNESS second and LUCKY PATCH third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 CORDYCEPS SIX B 1.08.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · R Gibson 6 2.5 N
2 11 NERVOUS WITNESS XB V Borges · D A Hayes 8 9.1 N
3 2 LUCKY PATCH H/V C L Chau · K W Lui 1 7.6 2-1/4
4 7 LUCKY EXPRESS B/E/TT A Hamelin · J Size 5 41.0 2-1/4
5 5 SUPER WEALTHY H Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 8.7 2-3/4
6 3 COMPUTER PATCH CP/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting 3 15.0 3
7 1 SKY FIELD H1/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 2 8.2 3
8 6 SIGHT SUCCESS E K Teetan · J Size 10 10.0 3-1/2
9 9 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT CP/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 7 22.0 4-1/4
10 8 DUKE WAI B/H C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan 4 15.0 4-3/4
11 4 HOT KING PRAWN J Moreira · J Size 11 18.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS SIX2. NERVOUS WITNESS+0.05L3. LUCKY PATCH+2.25L4. LUCKY EXPRESS+2.25L5. SUPER WEALTHY+2.75L6. COMPUTER PATCH+3L7. SKY FIELD+3L8. SIGHT SUCCESS+3.5L9. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT+4.25L10. DUKE WAI+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SIGHT SUCCESS (14.2%) finished 8th — the winner CORDYCEPS SIX was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 SIGHT SUCCESS 14.2% 7.05 8
2 1 SKY FIELD 12.2% 8.21 7
3 10 CORDYCEPS SIX 12.2% 8.22 1
4 11 NERVOUS WITNESS 11.5% 8.72 2
5 5 SUPER WEALTHY 11.1% 9.04 5
6 4 HOT KING PRAWN 8.9% 11.19 11
7 2 LUCKY PATCH 8.1% 12.30 3
8 3 COMPUTER PATCH 7.8% 12.86 6
9 9 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT 6.5% 15.35 9
10 8 DUKE WAI 3.9% 25.49 10
11 7 LUCKY EXPRESS 3.7% 27.37 4
SIGHT SUCCESSSKY FIELDCORDYCEPS SIX — wonNERVOUS WITNESSSUPER WEALTHYHOT KING PRAWNLUCKY PATCHCOMPUTER PATCHCALIFORNIADEEPSHOTDUKE WAILUCKY EXPRESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 25.5

PLACE

2 28.5

10 13.5

11 32.5

QUINELLA

10,11 123.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 50

2,11 133

10,11 53.5

FORECAST

10,11 220

TIERCE

10,11,2 1,410

TRIO

2,10,11 399

FIRST 4

2,7,10,11 3,181

QUARTET

10,11,2,7 27,264

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 20

A3

A2

8TH DOUBLE

3/10 99

3/11 117.5

WINNING TRAINER

B2

B3 25.5

B1

B4