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Sha Tin · 2022-05-22 · 17:48

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 2000m Course A 14 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-22 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. FIVE G PATCH, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-3/4, with TOTAL POWER second and INTREPID WINNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.02.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT 2.02.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz 12 4.2 1-3/4
2 8 TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B K H Chan · D J Hall 2 49.0 1-3/4
3 5 INTREPID WINNER Closed strongly B R Maia · A T Millard 11 13.0 2-1/4
4 9 ENZEMBLE Led early H/TT C L Chau · K L Man 1 28.0 3-1/4
5 14 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly V M Chadwick · P F Yiu 13 20.0 3-1/2
6 1 COPARTNER ELITES Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 14 6.3 4-1/4
7 10 PERFECT MARYKNOLL B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 6 16.0 4-1/2
8 12 SUPER OASIS B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 4.7 4-3/4
9 11 SMILING TIME V/TT M F Poon · K H Ting 5 26.0 6-1/2
10 4 ENTRUSTED CP/TT K C Leung · W Y So 3 30.0 6-1/2
11 6 BLASTOISE A Hamelin · A T Millard 8 28.0 7-1/2
12 3 SUPERBELLA B/TT B Shinn · F C Lor 7 6.0 9
13 13 VICTORY PARK B-/V1/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 10 16.0 14
14 2 S J TOURBILLON A Badel · P F Yiu 9 29.0 14-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIVE G PATCH2. TOTAL POWER+1.75L3. INTREPID WINNER+2.25L4. ENZEMBLE+3.25L5. NATURAL STORM+3.5L6. COPARTNER ELITES+4.25L7. PERFECT MARYKNOLL+4.5L8. SUPER OASIS+4.75L9. SMILING TIME+6.5L10. ENTRUSTED+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick COPARTNER ELITES (14.3%) finished 6th — the winner FIVE G PATCH was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 COPARTNER ELITES 14.3% 7.01 6
2 7 FIVE G PATCH 14.0% 7.13 1
3 12 SUPER OASIS 11.8% 8.45 8
4 14 NATURAL STORM 8.8% 11.37 5
5 3 SUPERBELLA 8.4% 11.91 12
6 5 INTREPID WINNER 6.8% 14.75 3
7 6 BLASTOISE 6.5% 15.28 11
8 13 VICTORY PARK 5.3% 18.98 13
9 10 PERFECT MARYKNOLL 5.1% 19.69 7
10 4 ENTRUSTED 4.5% 22.45 10
11 11 SMILING TIME 4.4% 22.75 9
12 8 TOTAL POWER 3.7% 26.73 2
13 2 S J TOURBILLON 3.7% 26.79 14
14 9 ENZEMBLE 2.7% 37.35 4
COPARTNER ELITESFIVE G PATCH — wonSUPER OASISNATURAL STORMSUPERBELLAINTREPID WINNERBLASTOISEVICTORY PARKPERFECT MARYKNOLLENTRUSTEDSMILING TIMETOTAL POWERS J TOURBILLONENZEMBLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 42.5

PLACE

5 40

7 19

8 110

QUINELLA

7,8 1,128

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 106.5

5,8 750

7,8 335.5

FORECAST

7,8 2,047

TIERCE

7,8,5 20,789

TRIO

5,7,8 2,861

FIRST 4

5,7,8,9 15,316

QUARTET

7,8,5,9 589,379

All pools (5 more)

10TH DOUBLE

10/7 504

10/8 1,174.5

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 22

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,10,12/5,7,8 3,177,117

SIX UP

1,2/3,13/3,7/10,11/1,10/7,8 10,178

1/13/3/10/10/7 73,248

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

10/10/7 1,292

10/10/8 3,879