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Sha Tin · 2022-05-22 · 15:03

Race 6

Group 1 GOOD 2400m Course A 10 runners

Result

Official · 2.26.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RUSSIAN EMPEROR Closed strongly B-/SR2 2.26.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D J Whyte 9 3.1 1-3/4
2 0 KA YING STAR V/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 8 17.0 1-3/4
3 0 SENOR TOBA Closed strongly V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 2 4.7 2-1/4
4 0 TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 4 11.0 5-1/2
5 0 PANFIELD TT K Teetan · A T Millard 7 4.7 6-3/4
6 0 ZEBROWSKI TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 7.4 7-1/2
7 0 BUTTERFIELD TT Z Purton · C S Shum 10 11.0 7-3/4
8 0 COLUMBUS COUNTY TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 6 14.0 7-3/4
9 0 RELIABLE TEAM B-/V2 K C Leung · F C Lor 1 48.0 17-1/4
10 0 NORDIC SKY Led early SR/XB A Hamelin · A T Millard 3 68.0 38-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-22 was Group 1 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. RUSSIAN EMPEROR, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-3/4, with KA YING STAR second and SENOR TOBA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUSSIAN EMPEROR—2. KA YING STAR+1.75L3. SENOR TOBA+2.25L4. TOURBILLON DIAMOND+5.5L5. PANFIELD+6.75L6. ZEBROWSKI+7.5L7. BUTTERFIELD+7.75L8. COLUMBUS COUNTY+7.75L9. RELIABLE TEAM+17.25L10. NORDIC SKY+38.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SENOR TOBA (36.5%) finished 3rd — the winner RUSSIAN EMPEROR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SENOR TOBA 36.5% 2.74 3
2 0 RUSSIAN EMPEROR 14.6% 6.83 1
3 0 TOURBILLON DIAMOND 8.6% 11.63 4
4 0 ZEBROWSKI 8.5% 11.76 6
5 0 NORDIC SKY 7.4% 13.44 10
6 0 BUTTERFIELD 6.8% 14.73 7
7 0 PANFIELD 6.2% 16.08 5
8 0 COLUMBUS COUNTY 5.4% 18.42 8
9 0 KA YING STAR 3.3% 30.56 2
10 0 RELIABLE TEAM 2.6% 38.06 9
SENOR TOBARUSSIAN EMPEROR — wonTOURBILLON DIAMONDZEBROWSKINORDIC SKYBUTTERFIELDPANFIELDCOLUMBUS COUNTYKA YING STARRELIABLE TEAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 31

PLACE

1 14

2 47.5

9 18

QUINELLA

1,2 264

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 84.5

1,9 31.5

2,9 138

FORECAST

1,2 473

TIERCE

1,2,9 2,114

TRIO

1,2,9 394

FIRST 4

1,2,3,9 765

QUARTET

1,2,9,3 13,889

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 19

A3 —

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

5/1 232

5/2 275.5

WINNING TRAINER

B4 25

B2 —

B1 —

B3 —