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Sha Tin · 2022-05-22 · 15:03

Race 6

Group 1 GOOD 2400m Course A 10 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-22 was Group 1 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. RUSSIAN EMPEROR, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-3/4, with KA YING STAR second and SENOR TOBA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.26.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 RUSSIAN EMPEROR Closed strongly B-/SR2 2.26.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D J Whyte 9 3.1 1-3/4
2 2 KA YING STAR V/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 8 17.0 1-3/4
3 9 SENOR TOBA Closed strongly V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 2 4.7 2-1/4
4 3 TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 4 11.0 5-1/2
5 4 PANFIELD TT K Teetan · A T Millard 7 4.7 6-3/4
6 8 ZEBROWSKI TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 7.4 7-1/2
7 6 BUTTERFIELD TT Z Purton · C S Shum 10 11.0 7-3/4
8 5 COLUMBUS COUNTY TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 6 14.0 7-3/4
9 7 RELIABLE TEAM B-/V2 K C Leung · F C Lor 1 48.0 17-1/4
10 10 NORDIC SKY Led early SR/XB A Hamelin · A T Millard 3 68.0 38-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUSSIAN EMPEROR2. KA YING STAR+1.75L3. SENOR TOBA+2.25L4. TOURBILLON DIAMOND+5.5L5. PANFIELD+6.75L6. ZEBROWSKI+7.5L7. BUTTERFIELD+7.75L8. COLUMBUS COUNTY+7.75L9. RELIABLE TEAM+17.25L10. NORDIC SKY+38.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SENOR TOBA (36.5%) finished 3rd — the winner RUSSIAN EMPEROR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 SENOR TOBA 36.5% 2.74 3
2 1 RUSSIAN EMPEROR 14.6% 6.83 1
3 3 TOURBILLON DIAMOND 8.6% 11.63 4
4 8 ZEBROWSKI 8.5% 11.76 6
5 10 NORDIC SKY 7.4% 13.44 10
6 6 BUTTERFIELD 6.8% 14.73 7
7 4 PANFIELD 6.2% 16.08 5
8 5 COLUMBUS COUNTY 5.4% 18.42 8
9 2 KA YING STAR 3.3% 30.56 2
10 7 RELIABLE TEAM 2.6% 38.06 9
SENOR TOBARUSSIAN EMPEROR — wonTOURBILLON DIAMONDZEBROWSKINORDIC SKYBUTTERFIELDPANFIELDCOLUMBUS COUNTYKA YING STARRELIABLE TEAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 31

PLACE

1 14

2 47.5

9 18

QUINELLA

1,2 264

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 84.5

1,9 31.5

2,9 138

FORECAST

1,2 473

TIERCE

1,2,9 2,114

TRIO

1,2,9 394

FIRST 4

1,2,3,9 765

QUARTET

1,2,9,3 13,889

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 19

5TH DOUBLE

5/1 232

5/2 275.5

WINNING TRAINER

B1

B4 25

B3

B2