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Sha Tin · 2022-05-22 · 13:33

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-22 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUPER AXIOM, ridden by H T Mo and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-1/2, with TIMESTORM second and AMAZING ROCKY third. The 2.3 favourite SUPER SUNNY SING finished 11th.

Result

Official · 0.57.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT 0.57.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · Y S Tsui 14 9.6 1-1/2
2 9 TIMESTORM XB1/TT1 L Ferraris · D J Hall 8 101.0 1-1/2
3 3 AMAZING ROCKY H M F Poon · T P Yung 3 24.0 2-1/2
4 14 EL JEFE XB-/B/TT2 K C Leung · C H Yip 12 9.6 2-3/4
5 11 JUMBO LEGEND H/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 10 12.0 4
6 2 UNITED WE STAND B/TT C Wong · P O'Sullivan 9 80.0 4-1/2
7 1 FABULOUS EIGHT TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 11 7.4 6-1/4
8 10 YOUNG HORIZON SB L Currie · D A Hayes 2 31.0 6-1/4
9 6 COMPASSION SUPER K Teetan · K L Man 1 44.0 6-1/2
10 5 COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 4 17.0 6-1/2
11 8 SUPER SUNNY SING J Moreira · W Y So 13 2.3 6-3/4
12 13 DIAMOND SOARS C L Chau · A T Millard 6 131.0 7-3/4
13 7 ONE FOR ALL TT1 A Badel · R Gibson 7 60.0 11-1/2
14 4 NOBLE ONE H Z Purton · K W Lui 5 6.4 14

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER AXIOM2. TIMESTORM+1.5L3. AMAZING ROCKY+2.5L4. EL JEFE+2.75L5. JUMBO LEGEND+4L6. UNITED WE STAND+4.5L7. FABULOUS EIGHT+6.25L8. YOUNG HORIZON+6.25L9. COMPASSION SUPER+6.5L10. COLOURFUL PRINCE+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUPER SUNNY SING (23.2%) finished 11th — the winner SUPER AXIOM was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 SUPER SUNNY SING 23.2% 4.31 11
2 4 NOBLE ONE 20.8% 4.80 14
3 6 COMPASSION SUPER 9.0% 11.13 9
4 10 YOUNG HORIZON 8.8% 11.43 8
5 12 SUPER AXIOM 5.8% 17.24 1
6 7 ONE FOR ALL 5.6% 17.99 13
7 1 FABULOUS EIGHT 5.0% 20.16 7
8 11 JUMBO LEGEND 4.9% 20.31 5
9 5 COLOURFUL PRINCE 4.7% 21.39 10
10 14 EL JEFE 4.0% 24.89 4
11 3 AMAZING ROCKY 3.7% 27.32 3
12 2 UNITED WE STAND 2.0% 49.11 6
13 9 TIMESTORM 1.5% 68.73 2
14 13 DIAMOND SOARS 1.1% 87.22 12
SUPER SUNNY SINGNOBLE ONECOMPASSION SUPERYOUNG HORIZONSUPER AXIOM — wonONE FOR ALLFABULOUS EIGHTJUMBO LEGENDCOLOURFUL PRINCEEL JEFEAMAZING ROCKYUNITED WE STANDTIMESTORMDIAMOND SOARS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 96.5

PLACE

3 62

9 193.5

12 28.5

QUINELLA

9,12 5,738

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 1,903.5

3,12 342.5

9,12 1,264.5

FORECAST

12,9 8,691

TIERCE

12,9,3 125,158

TRIO

3,9,12 28,131

FIRST 4

3,9,12,14 50,818

QUARTET

12,9,3,14 2,100,496

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/9 924

6/12 946.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 29