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Sha Tin · 2022-05-22 · 14:31

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-22 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. STAR BRITE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with CLASSIC POSH second and READY TO WIN third. The 4.1 favourite POWER KOEPP finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 STAR BRITE CP/TT 1.09.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · K W Lui 3 7.9 1/2
2 6 CLASSIC POSH L Currie · D J Hall 10 52.0 1/2
3 4 READY TO WIN CP/XB/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 9 4.7 3/4
4 1 IGNITING TT M F Poon · K W Lui 8 14.0 2-1/4
5 2 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT K H Chan · W Y So 12 34.0 2-1/2
6 7 POWER KOEPP E J Moreira · J Size 13 4.1 2-1/2
7 3 KASA PAPA Z Purton · T P Yung 7 9.9 2-1/2
8 10 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT M Chadwick · D J Hall 11 14.0 3
9 12 HIGH CLOUD XB1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 5 61.0 3
10 8 SUPER DOBBIN B A Hamelin · A T Millard 4 23.0 3-1/4
11 9 FLYING DRAGON K Teetan · C H Yip 1 5.3 4-1/4
12 13 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER TT A Badel · C Fownes 2 10.0 7-1/2
13 11 GREAT BRILLIANT L Ferraris · Y S Tsui 6 161.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STAR BRITE2. CLASSIC POSH+0.5L3. READY TO WIN+0.75L4. IGNITING+2.25L5. TEAM SPIRIT+2.5L6. POWER KOEPP+2.5L7. KASA PAPA+2.5L8. EIGHT TRIGRAMS+3L9. HIGH CLOUD+3L10. SUPER DOBBIN+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FLYING DRAGON (20.2%) finished 11th — the winner STAR BRITE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 FLYING DRAGON 20.2% 4.95 11
2 7 POWER KOEPP 18.1% 5.54 6
3 5 STAR BRITE 17.2% 5.81 1
4 3 KASA PAPA 14.5% 6.88 7
5 4 READY TO WIN 6.5% 15.35 3
6 10 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 5.6% 17.86 8
7 13 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER 3.8% 26.10 12
8 1 IGNITING 3.1% 31.81 4
9 6 CLASSIC POSH 2.7% 36.54 2
10 8 SUPER DOBBIN 2.7% 36.68 10
11 12 HIGH CLOUD 2.5% 39.22 9
12 2 TEAM SPIRIT 1.7% 57.24 5
13 11 GREAT BRILLIANT 1.1% 87.93 13
FLYING DRAGONPOWER KOEPPSTAR BRITE — wonKASA PAPAREADY TO WINEIGHT TRIGRAMSYOUNG LIFE FOREVERIGNITINGCLASSIC POSHSUPER DOBBINHIGH CLOUDTEAM SPIRITGREAT BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 79

PLACE

4 16.5

5 25

6 112.5

QUINELLA

5,6 1,650

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 94.5

4,6 406

5,6 422

FORECAST

5,6 3,748

TIERCE

5,6,4 18,374

TRIO

4,5,6 3,222

FIRST 4

1,4,5,6 6,283

QUARTET

5,6,4,1 191,066

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,6/4,5,6 119,754

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 24.5

A1

4TH DOUBLE

6/5 570

6/6 542