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Happy Valley · 2022-10-30 · 15:11

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-30 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1, with E RAINBOW second and OVERSUBSCRIBED third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.57.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT 0.57.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · D J Whyte 1 2.4 1
2 10 E RAINBOW L Hewitson · D A Hayes 3 17.0 1
3 9 OVERSUBSCRIBED XB M Chadwick · D J Hall 12 55.0 1
4 12 HANDSOME REBEL B/TT C Wong · J Richards 8 6.8 1-1/4
5 1 FABULOUS EIGHT B/TT K H Chan · P F Yiu 11 33.0 1-3/4
6 3 MOMENTUM GALAXY B K C Leung · K H Ting 5 18.0 1-3/4
7 2 LYRICAL MOTION CP/TT Z Purton · W Y So 2 4.9 2-3/4
8 6 ACE TALENT TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 11.0 3
9 5 SUPER COMMANDER B-/V1/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng 4 15.0 3-1/4
10 11 HAPPY TANGO B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 38.0 3-3/4
11 8 HAR HAR AT HEART A Badel · J Size 6 14.0 4-1/2
12 7 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 9 20.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN2. E RAINBOW+1L3. OVERSUBSCRIBED+1L4. HANDSOME REBEL+1.25L5. FABULOUS EIGHT+1.75L6. MOMENTUM GALAXY+1.75L7. LYRICAL MOTION+2.75L8. ACE TALENT+3L9. SUPER COMMANDER+3.25L10. HAPPY TANGO+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LYRICAL MOTION (20.4%) finished 7th — the winner PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 LYRICAL MOTION 20.4% 4.91 7
2 4 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN 19.5% 5.14 1
3 12 HANDSOME REBEL 8.8% 11.39 4
4 8 HAR HAR AT HEART 8.3% 12.11 11
5 5 SUPER COMMANDER 8.0% 12.48 9
6 10 E RAINBOW 7.9% 12.69 2
7 6 ACE TALENT 5.9% 16.81 8
8 1 FABULOUS EIGHT 5.5% 18.14 5
9 3 MOMENTUM GALAXY 5.0% 19.94 6
10 7 CIRCUIT SEVEN 4.8% 20.67 12
11 11 HAPPY TANGO 3.6% 28.01 10
12 9 OVERSUBSCRIBED 2.3% 42.69 3
LYRICAL MOTIONPRETTY QUEEN PRAWN — wonHANDSOME REBELHAR HAR AT HEARTSUPER COMMANDERE RAINBOWACE TALENTFABULOUS EIGHTMOMENTUM GALAXYCIRCUIT SEVENHAPPY TANGOOVERSUBSCRIBED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 24.5

PLACE

4 11.5

9 131

10 34.5

QUINELLA

4,10 206.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 398.5

4,10 75

9,10 1,116

FORECAST

4,10 308

TIERCE

4,10,9 12,927

TRIO

4,9,10 4,722

FIRST 4

4,9,10,12 4,443

QUARTET

4,10,9,12 77,822

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 16.5

A3

4TH DOUBLE

1/4 476.5

1/10 325.5