Happy Valley · 2022-10-30 · 15:11
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-30 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1, with E RAINBOW second and OVERSUBSCRIBED third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT 0.57.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 1 | 2.4 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | E RAINBOW L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 3 | 17.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 12 | 55.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | HANDSOME REBEL B/TT C Wong · J Richards | C Wong | J Richards | 8 | 6.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | FABULOUS EIGHT B/TT K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 11 | 33.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | MOMENTUM GALAXY B K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 5 | 18.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | LYRICAL MOTION CP/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 2 | 4.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | ACE TALENT TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 10 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 5 | SUPER COMMANDER B-/V1/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 4 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | HAPPY TANGO B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 7 | 38.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | HAR HAR AT HEART A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 6 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 9 | 20.0 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | LYRICAL MOTION | 20.4% | 4.91 | 7 |
| 2 | 4 | PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN | 19.5% | 5.14 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | HANDSOME REBEL | 8.8% | 11.39 | 4 |
| 4 | 8 | HAR HAR AT HEART | 8.3% | 12.11 | 11 |
| 5 | 5 | SUPER COMMANDER | 8.0% | 12.48 | 9 |
| 6 | 10 | E RAINBOW | 7.9% | 12.69 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | ACE TALENT | 5.9% | 16.81 | 8 |
| 8 | 1 | FABULOUS EIGHT | 5.5% | 18.14 | 5 |
| 9 | 3 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 5.0% | 19.94 | 6 |
| 10 | 7 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 4.8% | 20.67 | 12 |
| 11 | 11 | HAPPY TANGO | 3.6% | 28.01 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 2.3% | 42.69 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 24.5
PLACE
4 11.5
9 131
10 34.5
QUINELLA
4,10 206.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 398.5
4,10 75
9,10 1,116
FORECAST
4,10 308
TIERCE
4,10,9 12,927
TRIO
4,9,10 4,722
FIRST 4
4,9,10,12 4,443
QUARTET
4,10,9,12 77,822
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 16.5
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
1/4 476.5
1/10 325.5