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Happy Valley · 2022-10-30 · 15:41

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-30 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. JUMBO LEGEND, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with SHINING FORTUNE second and GANG OF BROTHERS third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 JUMBO LEGEND H/TT 1.09.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 2.3 SH
2 7 SHINING FORTUNE Z Purton · J Size 2 4.1 SH
3 3 GANG OF BROTHERS V H Bentley · P C Ng 9 32.0 1/2
4 10 LORIZ A Hamelin · P F Yiu 6 7.3 1-3/4
5 6 VAMOS H2 L Hewitson · D A Hayes 7 13.0 1-3/4
6 9 FIGHTING STAR B/XB/TT V Borges · C H Yip 10 41.0 2-3/4
7 4 SHADOW RUNNER CP1/TT K C Leung · J Richards 5 9.9 3
8 1 HIGH CLOUD SR-/XB/CP1 A Badel · D J Whyte 4 19.0 3-1/4
9 5 KUNG FU TEA B L Ferraris · D J Hall 3 17.0 5
10 11 KARUIZAWA B/TT H N Wong · C S Shum 12 159.0 5
11 12 HAPPY GATHERING M F Poon · K L Man 11 47.0 5-1/4
12 8 BLUSTITCH B/TT C L Chau · A T Millard 1 23.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JUMBO LEGEND2. SHINING FORTUNE+0.1L3. GANG OF BROTHERS+0.5L4. LORIZ+1.75L5. VAMOS+1.75L6. FIGHTING STAR+2.75L7. SHADOW RUNNER+3L8. HIGH CLOUD+3.25L9. KUNG FU TEA+5L10. KARUIZAWA+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SHINING FORTUNE (21.0%) finished 2nd — the winner JUMBO LEGEND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SHINING FORTUNE 21.0% 4.75 2
2 2 JUMBO LEGEND 20.8% 4.80 1
3 5 KUNG FU TEA 8.5% 11.80 9
4 6 VAMOS 8.2% 12.18 5
5 1 HIGH CLOUD 8.0% 12.43 8
6 10 LORIZ 7.5% 13.28 4
7 4 SHADOW RUNNER 7.1% 14.18 7
8 12 HAPPY GATHERING 5.3% 18.80 11
9 3 GANG OF BROTHERS 4.7% 21.12 3
10 8 BLUSTITCH 4.3% 23.04 12
11 9 FIGHTING STAR 3.7% 27.26 6
12 11 KARUIZAWA 0.8% 129.79 10
SHINING FORTUNEJUMBO LEGEND — wonKUNG FU TEAVAMOSHIGH CLOUDLORIZSHADOW RUNNERHAPPY GATHERINGGANG OF BROTHERSBLUSTITCHFIGHTING STARKARUIZAWA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 23.5

PLACE

2 13

3 63.5

7 15.5

QUINELLA

2,7 66

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 113

2,7 29.5

3,7 203

FORECAST

2,7 125

TIERCE

2,7,3 1,492

TRIO

2,3,7 451

FIRST 4

2,3,7,10 540

QUARTET

2,7,3,10 6,334

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 15

A2

5TH DOUBLE

4/2 51

4/7 26

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,5/4,9,10/Any Combination 1,603,428