Sha Tin · 2023-04-09 · 12:36

Race 1

Griffin GOOD 1000m Course B+2 7 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-09 was Griffin over 1000m, run on GOOD going. KAHOLO ANGEL, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with JOYFUL PROSPERITY second and SUPER BONUS third. The 1.8 favourite JOYFUL PROSPERITY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.58.16

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	KAHOLO ANGEL TT1 0.58.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	6	126 lb	2.5	1-1/2
2	4	JOYFUL PROSPERITY XB1 H Bowman · C W Chang	H Bowman	C W Chang	7	126 lb	1.8	1-1/2
3	6	SUPER BONUS B1 C L Chau · P C Ng	C L Chau	P C Ng	5	124 lb	9.0	2-3/4
4	3	HOLY LAKE H Bentley · K W Lui	H Bentley	K W Lui	4	126 lb	21.0	4-1/4
5	2	HAPPIHOOD M Chadwick · P C Ng	M Chadwick	P C Ng	3	126 lb	21.0	10-1/4
6	1	CERVIN B1 L Ferraris · R Gibson	L Ferraris	R Gibson	2	126 lb	34.0	12-1/2
7	7	DASHING SUCCESS H T Mo · Y S Tsui	H T Mo	Y S Tsui	1	119 lb	24.0	18-1/4
—	8	KA YING VICTORY Z Purton · D J Hall	Z Purton	D J Hall	—	121 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick JOYFUL PROSPERITY (24.9%) finished 2nd — the winner KAHOLO ANGEL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	JOYFUL PROSPERITY	24.9%	4.02	2	1.8
2	5	KAHOLO ANGEL	17.7%	5.65	1	2.5
3	2	HAPPIHOOD	16.9%	5.92	5	21.0
4	6	SUPER BONUS	13.9%	7.19	3	9.0
5	1	CERVIN	11.0%	9.11	6	34.0
6	7	DASHING SUCCESS	8.7%	11.56	7	24.0
7	3	HOLY LAKE	7.0%	14.24	4	21.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 25.5

PLACE

4 10.1

5 10.5

6 15.5

QUINELLA

4,5 20

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 10.5

4,6 24.5

5,6 24.5

FORECAST

5,4 54

TIERCE

5,4,6 121

TRIO

4,5,6 27

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 50

QUARTET

5,4,6,3 464

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 18

A1 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99