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Sha Tin · 2023-04-09 · 15:37

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY GOLF, ridden by H Bowman and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/2, with MULTIDARLING second and CALL ME DANDY third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 HAPPY GOLF 1.10.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · F C Lor 1 2.7 1-1/2
2 9 MULTIDARLING CP C L Chau · T P Yung 5 6.9 1-1/2
3 1 CALL ME DANDY CP/XB M Chadwick · K W Lui 8 3.1 2
4 7 TIMESTORM XB/B1/TT L Ferraris · D J Hall 12 9.2 2-1/2
5 6 GOOD BOY B/H1 A Badel · P C Ng 6 85.0 3-1/4
6 11 MIRACULOUS HONOUR H/SB K C Leung · Y S Tsui 13 60.0 4
7 5 ALWAYS FLUKE C Y Ho · D A Hayes 9 16.0 4-1/2
8 4 RACING FIGHTER B/TT S De Sousa · C H Yip 11 31.0 4-1/2
9 10 KEEN UNITY B/TT R Maia · A T Millard 14 133.0 4-1/2
10 8 URBAN TRIUMPH B1/TT1 L Hewitson · W Y So 7 111.0 5-1/2
11 2 FAST BUCK B- Z Purton · J Size 10 9.4 6-3/4
12 12 MULAN H Bentley · K H Ting 2 115.0 7
13 13 SUPER JOY P/TT1 M F Poon · L Ho 3 109.0 11-1/2
14 14 EAGLE RUN SR/TT V Borges · D J Whyte 4 98.0 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY GOLF2. MULTIDARLING+1.5L3. CALL ME DANDY+2L4. TIMESTORM+2.5L5. GOOD BOY+3.25L6. MIRACULOUS HONOUR+4L7. ALWAYS FLUKE+4.5L8. RACING FIGHTER+4.5L9. KEEN UNITY+4.5L10. URBAN TRIUMPH+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick CALL ME DANDY (22.5%) finished 3rd — the winner HAPPY GOLF was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CALL ME DANDY 22.5% 4.44 3
2 3 HAPPY GOLF 21.2% 4.72 1
3 2 FAST BUCK 14.1% 7.08 11
4 9 MULTIDARLING 8.0% 12.42 2
5 7 TIMESTORM 7.6% 13.20 4
6 5 ALWAYS FLUKE 4.8% 21.04 7
7 8 URBAN TRIUMPH 4.6% 21.68 10
8 4 RACING FIGHTER 4.5% 22.03 8
9 11 MIRACULOUS HONOUR 2.7% 37.08 6
10 12 MULAN 2.5% 39.53 12
11 13 SUPER JOY 2.2% 45.39 13
12 6 GOOD BOY 2.0% 49.59 5
13 14 EAGLE RUN 1.9% 53.77 14
14 10 KEEN UNITY 1.3% 75.55 9
CALL ME DANDYHAPPY GOLF — wonFAST BUCKMULTIDARLINGTIMESTORMALWAYS FLUKEURBAN TRIUMPHRACING FIGHTERMIRACULOUS HONOURMULANSUPER JOYGOOD BOYEAGLE RUNKEEN UNITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 27

PLACE

1 14.5

3 12.5

9 23.5

QUINELLA

3,9 113.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 21.5

1,9 53.5

3,9 44

FORECAST

3,9 164

TIERCE

3,9,1 532

TRIO

1,3,9 111

FIRST 4

1,3,7,9 169

QUARTET

3,9,1,7 2,505

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 14.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,8/1,3,9 1,166

6TH DOUBLE

2/3 33

2/9 32.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,12/2,6,8/1,3,9 216,334

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,12/2,6,8/Any Combination 1,730