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Sha Tin · 2023-04-09 · 14:06

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-09 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. AMAZING TEENS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with BILLIONAIRE SECRET second and COLOURFUL BARON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.48.15
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 AMAZING TEENS Closed strongly H/P/TT 1.48.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size 7 2.4 1-1/4
2 6 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB C Y Ho · P C Ng 12 7.8 1-1/4
3 12 COLOURFUL BARON Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · R Gibson 11 15.0 1-1/4
4 9 MISSION BRAVO Led early B/H/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 8 21.0 2
5 1 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB S De Sousa · C W Chang 9 7.0 3-1/4
6 4 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B K H Chan · D J Hall 6 69.0 3-1/2
7 10 KA YING GLORIOUS Closed strongly B M F Poon · D A Hayes 10 99.0 7
8 8 BOOM ALLIANCE SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 11.0 7-1/4
9 5 ULTRA EXPRESS B/TT R Maia · A T Millard 2 43.0 8-1/4
10 11 MURRAY'S PARTNERS V C Wong · C H Yip 3 55.0 9
11 2 EMERGING B/H/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 4 20.0 10-3/4
12 7 NICE BIRDIE B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 5 4.7 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING TEENS2. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+1.25L3. COLOURFUL BARON+1.25L4. MISSION BRAVO+2L5. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+3.25L6. KYRUS UNICORN+3.5L7. KA YING GLORIOUS+7L8. BOOM ALLIANCE+7.25L9. ULTRA EXPRESS+8.25L10. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick NICE BIRDIE (23.3%) finished 12th — the winner AMAZING TEENS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 NICE BIRDIE 23.3% 4.30 12
2 3 AMAZING TEENS 15.0% 6.66 1
3 6 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 15.0% 6.67 2
4 8 BOOM ALLIANCE 11.1% 9.04 8
5 1 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 7.3% 13.69 5
6 12 COLOURFUL BARON 6.7% 14.91 3
7 2 EMERGING 6.5% 15.42 11
8 11 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 5.9% 17.00 10
9 4 KYRUS UNICORN 4.9% 20.46 6
10 9 MISSION BRAVO 1.7% 59.81 4
11 5 ULTRA EXPRESS 1.6% 62.65 9
12 10 KA YING GLORIOUS 1.1% 89.32 7
NICE BIRDIEAMAZING TEENS — wonBILLIONAIRE SECRETBOOM ALLIANCERIGHTEOUS DOCTRINECOLOURFUL BARONEMERGINGMURRAY'S PARTNERSKYRUS UNICORNMISSION BRAVOULTRA EXPRESSKA YING GLORIOUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 24

PLACE

3 12.5

6 24

12 30.5

QUINELLA

3,6 100.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 42

3,12 59.5

6,12 123.5

FORECAST

3,6 163

TIERCE

3,6,12 1,236

TRIO

3,6,12 361

FIRST 4

3,6,9,12 1,150

QUARTET

3,6,12,9 13,613

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 16

A3

3RD DOUBLE

8/3 88

8/6 29