Sha Tin · 2023-04-09 · 16:07
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-09 was Group 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY SWEYNESSE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with WELLINGTON second and MASTER EIGHT third. Victory came as the 1.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE 1.09.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 4 | 1.2 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | WELLINGTON XB/CP2 A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 1 | 5.8 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | MASTER EIGHT CP-/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 2 | 57.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 7 | 34.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | CORDYCEPS SIX B M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 3 | 16.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | COURIER WONDER H K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 5 | 14.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | WHIZZ KID B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 6 | 60.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | WELLINGTON | 11.4% | 8.74 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | CORDYCEPS SIX | 7.1% | 14.18 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | COURIER WONDER | 7.1% | 14.18 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | REWARDING TOGETHER | 6.7% | 15.02 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | WHIZZ KID | 3.1% | 32.28 | 7 |
| 7 | 5 | MASTER EIGHT | 2.2% | 45.05 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 12
PLACE
1 10.1
2 14.5
5 59.5
QUINELLA
1,2 20.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 12
1,5 124.5
2,5 182.5
FORECAST
1,2 23
TIERCE
1,2,5 412
TRIO
1,2,5 203
FIRST 4
1,2,5,6 328
QUARTET
1,2,5,6 1,683
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 12
A3 —
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
3/1 30
3/2 29