Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2023-04-09 · 13:37

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-09 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. RED ELEGANCE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 2-1/4, with LUCKY ENCOUNTER second and MULTISUPER third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 RED ELEGANCE XB1/TT1 0.56.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 7 2.5 2-1/4
2 7 LUCKY ENCOUNTER K Teetan · D A Hayes 2 7.0 2-1/4
3 3 MULTISUPER H Bowman · P F Yiu 1 3.3 2-3/4
4 13 TURBO POWER B- C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 9.9 3-1/4
5 11 CIRCUIT SEVEN H/B2/TT S De Sousa · A S Cruz 6 18.0 4-1/4
6 9 SPARKLING DOLPHIN H T Mo · Y S Tsui 8 35.0 4-1/2
7 12 HAR HAR AT HEART H-/E1 A Badel · J Size 13 106.0 5-1/4
8 1 TALENTS SUPREMO XB L Hewitson · R Gibson 5 22.0 6
9 2 FARIBAULT B L Ferraris · P C Ng 9 32.0 7-3/4
10 6 CAMINO H1 M Chadwick · C Fownes 4 96.0 8-3/4
11 5 BAYVIEW STAR H1 M F Poon · K W Lui 3 130.0 8-3/4
12 4 SPARKLING KNIGHT B2 K H Chan · C H Yip 11 18.0 10-1/2
13 10 SOARING PENGSHAN SR-/B1/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 12 38.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED ELEGANCE2. LUCKY ENCOUNTER+2.25L3. MULTISUPER+2.75L4. TURBO POWER+3.25L5. CIRCUIT SEVEN+4.25L6. SPARKLING DOLPHIN+4.5L7. HAR HAR AT HEART+5.25L8. TALENTS SUPREMO+6L9. FARIBAULT+7.75L10. CAMINO+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MULTISUPER (40.9%) finished 3rd — the winner RED ELEGANCE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 MULTISUPER 40.9% 2.45 3
2 8 RED ELEGANCE 15.1% 6.63 1
3 7 LUCKY ENCOUNTER 7.6% 13.16 2
4 11 CIRCUIT SEVEN 7.2% 13.90 5
5 13 TURBO POWER 6.1% 16.29 4
6 1 TALENTS SUPREMO 5.0% 20.18 8
7 5 BAYVIEW STAR 4.5% 22.01 11
8 2 FARIBAULT 4.5% 22.14 9
9 4 SPARKLING KNIGHT 2.5% 39.23 12
10 10 SOARING PENGSHAN 2.0% 48.93 13
11 9 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 1.8% 55.51 6
12 12 HAR HAR AT HEART 1.5% 66.39 7
13 6 CAMINO 1.2% 84.54 10
MULTISUPERRED ELEGANCE — wonLUCKY ENCOUNTERCIRCUIT SEVENTURBO POWERTALENTS SUPREMOBAYVIEW STARFARIBAULTSPARKLING KNIGHTSOARING PENGSHANSPARKLING DOLPHINHAR HAR AT HEARTCAMINO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 25

PLACE

3 15.5

7 24.5

8 12

QUINELLA

7,8 94

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 50.5

3,8 23

7,8 43.5

FORECAST

8,7 172

TIERCE

8,7,3 444

TRIO

3,7,8 93

FIRST 4

3,7,8,13 135

QUARTET

8,7,3,13 1,979

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,9,13/3,7,8 11,969

2ND DOUBLE

4/7 55

4/8 111.5

3 PICK 1

A1 14

A3

A2