Sha Tin · 2023-04-09 · 16:43

Race 9

Group 2 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 8 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-09 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with MONEY CATCHER second and BEAUTY JOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.34.17

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	CALIFORNIA SPANGLE Closed strongly TT 1.34.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	2	128 lb	1.2	1/2
2	5	MONEY CATCHER Closed strongly S De Sousa · F C Lor	S De Sousa	F C Lor	8	123 lb	11.0	1/2
3	4	BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	1	123 lb	7.0	1
4	8	HEALTHY HAPPY Led early V/TT K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	6	123 lb	53.0	1-1/4
5	6	RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly L Currie · J Size	L Currie	J Size	3	123 lb	25.0	3
6	3	TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum	A Badel	C S Shum	7	123 lb	12.0	4
7	2	WAIKUKU K Teetan · J Size	K Teetan	J Size	5	123 lb	24.0	4-1/4
8	7	COLUMBUS COUNTY TT C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	4	123 lb	75.0	5-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick CALIFORNIA SPANGLE (61.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	CALIFORNIA SPANGLE	61.5%	1.63	1	1.2
2	4	BEAUTY JOY	8.3%	12.06	3	7.0
3	5	MONEY CATCHER	8.2%	12.17	2	11.0
4	3	TOURBILLON DIAMOND	6.0%	16.57	6	12.0
5	6	RUNNING GLORY	4.9%	20.47	5	25.0
6	7	COLUMBUS COUNTY	4.3%	23.05	8	75.0
7	2	WAIKUKU	4.3%	23.50	7	24.0
8	8	HEALTHY HAPPY	2.5%	40.72	4	53.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 12.5

PLACE

1 10.1

4 19

5 20

QUINELLA

1,5 45

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 17

1,5 23.5

4,5 51

FORECAST

1,5 54

TIERCE

1,5,4 156

TRIO

1,4,5 53

FIRST 4

1,4,5,8 241

QUARTET

1,5,4,8 1,478

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 12.5

A2 —

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,5/1,4,5 1,509

8TH DOUBLE

1/1 14.5

1/5 36.5

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