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Sha Tin · 2023-04-09 · 14:36

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-09 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. SMILING COLLECTOR, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by K H Ting, won by NOSE, with PERFETTO second and SUPERB MOVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite PERFETTO finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly V/XB 1.35.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · K H Ting 4 4.1 NOSE
2 1 PERFETTO Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 8 2.2 NOSE
3 12 SUPERB MOVE Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · C H Yip 12 60.0 1/2
4 4 PUBLICIST Closed strongly H A Badel · P C Ng 5 9.5 2
5 9 BULB PRINCE Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 7 8.9 2-3/4
6 2 LOOKING COOL CP2 K C Leung · F C Lor 3 16.0 3
7 10 CIRCUIT ELITE Led early B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 1 26.0 3-3/4
8 5 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B M Chadwick · W Y So 6 12.0 6-1/4
9 6 NUNCHUKS TT C Wong · C Fownes 2 22.0 7
10 11 CLASSIC ARCHI SR/TT V Borges · D J Whyte 11 22.0 7
11 8 ORIENTAL SPIRIT Closed strongly L Hewitson · D A Hayes 9 82.0 16
12 7 LEATHER MASTER B C L Chau · T P Yung 10 139.0 17-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMILING COLLECTOR2. PERFETTO+0.05L3. SUPERB MOVE+0.5L4. PUBLICIST+2L5. BULB PRINCE+2.75L6. LOOKING COOL+3L7. CIRCUIT ELITE+3.75L8. COPARTNER ERA+6.25L9. NUNCHUKS+7L10. CLASSIC ARCHI+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PERFETTO (34.4%) finished 2nd — the winner SMILING COLLECTOR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PERFETTO 34.4% 2.90 2
2 3 SMILING COLLECTOR 17.4% 5.76 1
3 4 PUBLICIST 9.2% 10.89 4
4 9 BULB PRINCE 8.3% 12.08 5
5 10 CIRCUIT ELITE 8.0% 12.57 7
6 5 COPARTNER ERA 4.8% 20.96 8
7 6 NUNCHUKS 4.4% 22.97 9
8 11 CLASSIC ARCHI 3.7% 27.23 10
9 12 SUPERB MOVE 3.4% 29.00 3
10 8 ORIENTAL SPIRIT 3.0% 33.07 11
11 2 LOOKING COOL 2.8% 36.09 6
12 7 LEATHER MASTER 0.7% 134.37 12
PERFETTOSMILING COLLECTOR — wonPUBLICISTBULB PRINCECIRCUIT ELITECOPARTNER ERANUNCHUKSCLASSIC ARCHISUPERB MOVEORIENTAL SPIRITLOOKING COOLLEATHER MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 41.5

PLACE

1 11

3 17

12 110

QUINELLA

1,3 47

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 23

1,12 222.5

3,12 371

FORECAST

3,1 137

TIERCE

3,1,12 4,458

TRIO

1,3,12 848

FIRST 4

1,3,4,12 1,036

QUARTET

3,1,12,4 23,138

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,6,12/1,3,12 19,010

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 14.5

4TH DOUBLE

3/1 11

3/3 167