Sha Tin · 2023-05-07 · 12:31

Race 1

Griffin GOOD 1000m Course B 8 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-07 was Griffin over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CHANCHENG GLORY, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with GALLANT VALOUR second and HOLY LAKE third. The 1.6 favourite KAHOLO ANGEL finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.56.92

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	CHANCHENG GLORY XB1 0.56.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui	L Hewitson	K W Lui	5	126 lb	11.0	1
2	8	GALLANT VALOUR K Teetan · A T Millard	K Teetan	A T Millard	8	121 lb	16.0	1
3	5	HOLY LAKE XB1 H Bentley · K W Lui	H Bentley	K W Lui	4	126 lb	37.0	1-1/2
4	1	KAHOLO ANGEL TT E C W Wong · C Fownes	E C W Wong	C Fownes	3	123 lb	1.6	4
5	7	SUPER BONUS B C L Chau · P C Ng	C L Chau	P C Ng	2	124 lb	8.6	4-1/4
6	3	GREAT DAYS B1 A Badel · P C Ng	A Badel	P C Ng	1	126 lb	65.0	6-3/4
7	4	HAPPIHOOD B1 M Chadwick · P C Ng	M Chadwick	P C Ng	7	126 lb	60.0	7-1/4
8	6	JOYFUL PROSPERITY XB/CP1 S De Sousa · C W Chang	S De Sousa	C W Chang	6	126 lb	3.8	8

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick KAHOLO ANGEL (41.9%) finished 4th — the winner CHANCHENG GLORY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	KAHOLO ANGEL	41.9%	2.38	4	1.6
2	6	JOYFUL PROSPERITY	22.0%	4.55	8	3.8
3	7	SUPER BONUS	10.8%	9.26	5	8.6
4	8	GALLANT VALOUR	10.5%	9.54	2	16.0
5	3	GREAT DAYS	5.6%	17.99	6	65.0
6	2	CHANCHENG GLORY	4.8%	20.80	1	11.0
7	5	HOLY LAKE	2.5%	40.25	3	37.0
8	4	HAPPIHOOD	1.9%	51.58	7	60.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 118.5

PLACE

2 25.5

5 42

8 43

QUINELLA

2,8 839.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 161.5

2,8 166.5

5,8 323

FORECAST

2,8 1,749

TIERCE

2,8,5 14,942

TRIO

2,5,8 3,014

FIRST 4

1,2,5,8 747

QUARTET

2,8,5,1 41,139

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 38

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99