Sha Tin · 2023-05-07 · 13:37
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-07 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on SOFT going. SIMPLE HEDGE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by N, with MODULECONSTRUCTION second and SIGHT HERO third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SIMPLE HEDGE 1.12.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 10 | 2.8 | N |
| 2 | 3 | MODULECONSTRUCTION TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 4.7 | N |
| 3 | 1 | SIGHT HERO B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 4 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | URBAN TRIUMPH B-/V1/TT B Avdulla · W Y So | B Avdulla | W Y So | 11 | 97.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | REGENCY BO BO B/TT S De Sousa · C S Shum | S De Sousa | C S Shum | 9 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | SPICY SO SMART H-/XB/CP1 H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 5 | 57.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | WINNING DATA K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 2 | 7.8 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 | SHINKANSEN H L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 6 | 41.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 9 | 13 | BLISSFUL LIFE CP/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 7 | 117.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 14 | GREAT FOR YOU CP-/B1 V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 14 | 41.0 | 13 |
| 11 | 11 | HUGE WIN SR M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 1 | 19.0 | 14 |
| 12 | 10 | CASA SACRED TT L Currie · J Richards | L Currie | J Richards | 8 | 171.0 | 21 |
| 13 | 9 | MARVEL DRAGON TT H Bowman · T P Yung | H Bowman | T P Yung | 3 | 4.8 | 25-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | HORSE OF GOOD LUCK H1/TT1 R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 13 | 76.0 | 34-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | MARVEL DRAGON | 20.0% | 4.99 | 13 |
| 2 | 4 | SIMPLE HEDGE | 17.0% | 5.89 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | MODULECONSTRUCTION | 15.3% | 6.53 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | WINNING DATA | 12.1% | 8.26 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | SIGHT HERO | 8.7% | 11.47 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | HUGE WIN | 6.7% | 14.99 | 11 |
| 7 | 12 | SPICY SO SMART | 4.7% | 21.49 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | REGENCY BO BO | 3.9% | 25.60 | 5 |
| 9 | 13 | BLISSFUL LIFE | 2.8% | 35.11 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | HORSE OF GOOD LUCK | 2.7% | 36.79 | 14 |
| 11 | 6 | SHINKANSEN | 2.6% | 38.64 | 8 |
| 12 | 7 | URBAN TRIUMPH | 1.4% | 71.52 | 4 |
| 13 | 14 | GREAT FOR YOU | 1.4% | 73.11 | 10 |
| 14 | 10 | CASA SACRED | 0.7% | 150.10 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 28.5
PLACE
1 34
3 18.5
4 14
QUINELLA
3,4 86
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 78.5
1,4 83.5
3,4 34.5
FORECAST
4,3 133
TIERCE
4,3,1 861
TRIO
1,3,4 193
FIRST 4
1,3,4,7 3,628
QUARTET
4,3,1,7 30,443
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,9/1,3,4 1,633
2ND DOUBLE
4/3 40.5
4/4 132
3 PICK 1
A1 18
A2 —
A3 —