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Sha Tin · 2023-05-07 · 13:06

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO YIELDING 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-07 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. YOUNG HORIZON, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D A Hayes, won by 5-1/4, with APEX TOP second and BEAUTY NOVA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite APEX TOP finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.23.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 YOUNG HORIZON Closed strongly H-/P- 1.23.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D A Hayes 6 5.2 5-1/4
2 8 APEX TOP B L Ferraris · D J Whyte 7 3.6 5-1/4
3 9 BEAUTY NOVA Closed strongly TT Z Purton · J Size 14 7.1 5-1/2
4 11 HUNKY DORY Closed strongly SR/V/TT S De Sousa · W Y So 1 24.0 5-1/2
5 12 U W BROTHER Led early M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 12 11.0 5-1/2
6 3 SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 55.0 5-3/4
7 6 YOUNG SPARKLE Closed strongly B1 K Teetan · A T Millard 3 11.0 5-3/4
8 2 JUST GREAT TWO B- H Bowman · D J Hall 2 44.0 6
9 1 MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly H/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 8 8.0 8-3/4
10 13 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B A Badel · C H Yip 4 7.3 10-1/2
11 10 EASY LIFE TT V Borges · K H Ting 11 116.0 11-3/4
12 7 CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 13 21.0 14
13 14 TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B-/V1 H W Lai · L Ho 10 82.0 15
14 5 HAPPY MATADOR B-/XB/TT- K C Leung · C W Chang 9 56.0 16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YOUNG HORIZON2. APEX TOP+5.25L3. BEAUTY NOVA+5.5L4. HUNKY DORY+5.5L5. U W BROTHER+5.5L6. SMART BEAUTY+5.75L7. YOUNG SPARKLE+5.75L8. JUST GREAT TWO+6L9. MASTER OF LUCK+8.75L10. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY NOVA (16.3%) finished 3rd — the winner YOUNG HORIZON was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 BEAUTY NOVA 16.3% 6.15 3
2 6 YOUNG SPARKLE 15.0% 6.67 7
3 4 YOUNG HORIZON 14.0% 7.12 1
4 8 APEX TOP 12.7% 7.85 2
5 12 U W BROTHER 8.5% 11.75 5
6 1 MASTER OF LUCK 7.0% 14.30 9
7 13 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 6.9% 14.56 10
8 11 HUNKY DORY 6.7% 15.03 4
9 5 HAPPY MATADOR 3.2% 31.13 14
10 7 CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO 3.0% 33.24 12
11 2 JUST GREAT TWO 2.7% 36.47 8
12 10 EASY LIFE 1.5% 66.50 11
13 3 SMART BEAUTY 1.4% 70.87 6
14 14 TURF BRILLIANT 1.1% 94.13 13
BEAUTY NOVAYOUNG SPARKLEYOUNG HORIZON — wonAPEX TOPU W BROTHERMASTER OF LUCKHEAVENLY THOUGHTHUNKY DORYHAPPY MATADORCIRCUIT SPIRITANTOJUST GREAT TWOEASY LIFESMART BEAUTYTURF BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 52.5

PLACE

4 20

8 17

9 24.5

QUINELLA

4,8 107

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 44.5

4,9 64.5

8,9 56

FORECAST

4,8 234

TIERCE

4,8,9 1,095

TRIO

4,8,9 171

FIRST 4

4,8,9,11 1,017

QUARTET

4,8,9,11 14,633

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/4 485

2/8 107

3 PICK 1

A1 21.5

A2

A3