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Sha Tin · 2023-05-07 · 15:37

Race 6

Class 4 SOFT 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-07 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on SOFT going. SUPER HIGHWAY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with BABY CRYSTAL second and HORSESAIN BOLT third. The 3.6 favourite BABY CRYSTAL finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.11.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SUPER HIGHWAY V/TT 1.11.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · F C Lor 13 11.0 1
2 1 BABY CRYSTAL Z Purton · J Size 3 3.6 1
3 3 HORSESAIN BOLT B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 11 8.4 1-3/4
4 5 WATCH BUDDY A Badel · P F Yiu 2 6.3 3
5 12 SMART LEADER B/XB/TT L Ferraris · W Y So 10 25.0 3-1/4
6 4 LEAN HERO CP/TT1 K Teetan · D A Hayes 14 32.0 3-1/2
7 10 MULTIDARLING CP H Bowman · T P Yung 9 3.6 3-3/4
8 9 SWEET BRIAR B/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 7 11.0 4-3/4
9 2 ISLAND GOLDEN TT S De Sousa · K L Man 12 43.0 5-1/4
10 6 COURIER MAGIC CP1/TT1 L Currie · J Richards 4 62.0 5-1/2
11 14 FIGHTING STAR B A Hamelin · C H Yip 5 15.0 8-1/4
12 8 REGENCY HAPPY STAR H1/TT1 M F Poon · A S Cruz 6 68.0 10
13 13 PLENTIFUL H/XB/CP1 H Bentley · P C Ng 1 66.0 11-1/4
14 7 RED LEADER B Avdulla · Y S Tsui 8 121.0 18-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER HIGHWAY2. BABY CRYSTAL+1L3. HORSESAIN BOLT+1.75L4. WATCH BUDDY+3L5. SMART LEADER+3.25L6. LEAN HERO+3.5L7. MULTIDARLING+3.75L8. SWEET BRIAR+4.75L9. ISLAND GOLDEN+5.25L10. COURIER MAGIC+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BABY CRYSTAL (34.8%) finished 2nd — the winner SUPER HIGHWAY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BABY CRYSTAL 34.8% 2.87 2
2 10 MULTIDARLING 11.1% 9.00 7
3 5 WATCH BUDDY 9.0% 11.08 4
4 4 LEAN HERO 7.9% 12.66 6
5 11 SUPER HIGHWAY 4.7% 21.07 1
6 9 SWEET BRIAR 4.5% 22.20 8
7 8 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 4.4% 22.65 12
8 3 HORSESAIN BOLT 4.4% 22.92 3
9 12 SMART LEADER 4.3% 23.24 5
10 14 FIGHTING STAR 4.1% 24.41 11
11 7 RED LEADER 3.6% 27.47 14
12 2 ISLAND GOLDEN 2.8% 35.17 9
13 6 COURIER MAGIC 2.7% 37.03 10
14 13 PLENTIFUL 1.5% 65.31 13
BABY CRYSTALMULTIDARLINGWATCH BUDDYLEAN HEROSUPER HIGHWAY — wonSWEET BRIARREGENCY HAPPY STARHORSESAIN BOLTSMART LEADERFIGHTING STARRED LEADERISLAND GOLDENCOURIER MAGICPLENTIFUL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 114.5

PLACE

1 16

3 27

11 31

QUINELLA

1,11 201

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 62.5

1,11 75

3,11 122.5

FORECAST

11,1 707

TIERCE

11,1,3 3,704

TRIO

1,3,11 434

FIRST 4

1,3,5,11 1,058

QUARTET

11,1,3,5 31,913

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 23.5

A3

A1

5TH DOUBLE

5/1 66

5/11 969