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Sha Tin · 2023-05-07 · 16:41

Race 8

Class 4 SOFT 1400m Course B 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.25.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ALL IS GOOD Wire to wire B 1.25.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 14 17.0 3/4
3 0 TOGEPI Closed strongly S De Sousa · A T Millard 10 16.0 1-1/4
5 0 DRAGON STAR B/XB L Ferraris · P C Ng 13 100.0 2-1/2
6 0 GOOD NEWS Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · P F Yiu 9 4.3 3-1/2
7 0 DRAGON DELIGHT Closed strongly CP-/B1 L Hewitson · D A Hayes 8 12.0 3-1/2
8 0 MASTER HERO XB/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 13.0 3-3/4
10 0 NATURAL GOLD SR/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 14.0 6-1/2
11 0 DAZZLING FELLOW B/XB M Chadwick · D J Hall 6 21.0 6-1/2
12 0 GOLDEN BULL B/XB/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 4 3.9 6-3/4
13 0 WIND SPEEDER B Avdulla · Y S Tsui 12 47.0 8
14 0 COPARTNER PUDONG K Teetan · J Size 1 16.0 18-3/4
— 0 FORERUNNER CP- C L Chau · T P Yung — 11.0 5
— 0 LADY'S CHOICE B/H A Hamelin · C W Chang — 13.0 3/4
— 0 ENNEA FORTUNE · C H Yip — — —
— 0 STURDY RUBY Closed strongly TT K C Leung · K L Man — 12.0 1-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-07 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on SOFT going. ALL IS GOOD, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with TOGEPI second and DRAGON STAR third. The winner led throughout. The 3.9 favourite GOLDEN BULL finished 12th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALL IS GOOD—3. TOGEPI+1.25L5. DRAGON STAR+2.5L6. GOOD NEWS+3.5L7. DRAGON DELIGHT+3.5L8. MASTER HERO+3.75L10. NATURAL GOLD+6.5L11. DAZZLING FELLOW+6.5L12. GOLDEN BULL+6.75L13. WIND SPEEDER+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GOLDEN BULL (23.8%) finished 12th — the winner ALL IS GOOD was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GOLDEN BULL 23.8% 4.20 12
2 0 COPARTNER PUDONG 11.1% 9.04 14
3 0 GOOD NEWS 9.5% 10.48 6
4 0 DAZZLING FELLOW 9.3% 10.70 11
5 0 TOGEPI 7.8% 12.83 3
6 0 DRAGON DELIGHT 6.7% 15.02 7
7 0 FORERUNNER 6.6% 15.23 —
8 0 MASTER HERO 5.3% 18.76 8
9 0 STURDY RUBY 5.2% 19.32 —
10 0 NATURAL GOLD 5.0% 19.98 10
11 0 ALL IS GOOD 4.4% 22.66 1
12 0 WIND SPEEDER 2.3% 42.60 13
13 0 LADY'S CHOICE 2.0% 49.57 —
14 0 DRAGON STAR 0.9% 107.58 5
GOLDEN BULLCOPARTNER PUDONGGOOD NEWSDAZZLING FELLOWTOGEPIDRAGON DELIGHTFORERUNNERMASTER HEROSTURDY RUBYNATURAL GOLDALL IS GOOD — wonWIND SPEEDERLADY'S CHOICEDRAGON STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 174.5

PLACE

10 46

12 41

13 44.5

QUINELLA

12,13 1,420

QUINELLA PLACE

10,12 273.5

10,13 423

12,13 405

FORECAST

13,12 2,772

TIERCE

13,12,10 27,224

TRIO

10,12,13 4,970

FIRST 4

6,10,12,13 15,620

QUARTET

13,12,10,6 352,493

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 20.5

A2 —

7TH DOUBLE

7/12 29.5

7/13 369