Sha Tin · 2023-05-07 · 16:07
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-07 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on SOFT going. GOLDEN EXPRESS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 2-3/4, with WINNING DREAMER second and NERVOUS WITNESS third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | GOLDEN EXPRESS 1.10.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 8 | 1.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | WINNING DREAMER B- A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 4 | 25.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | NERVOUS WITNESS H-/XB- L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 9 | 9.1 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | ADIOS TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 8.1 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | STOLTZ CP C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 40.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | GOKO WIN B S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 3 | 7.5 | 6-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | ORIENTAL SMOKE B Y L Chung · D A Hayes | Y L Chung | D A Hayes | 7 | 26.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | STREET SCREAM B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 2 | 31.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | SUNNY BOY B/TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 10 | 122.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | CARROLL STREET SR/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 6 | 56.0 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | GOLDEN EXPRESS | 57.0% | 1.76 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | GOKO WIN | 11.4% | 8.74 | 6 |
| 3 | 5 | ADIOS | 9.1% | 11.00 | 4 |
| 4 | 6 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 4.5% | 22.38 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | STREET SCREAM | 4.1% | 24.31 | 8 |
| 6 | 1 | NERVOUS WITNESS | 4.0% | 24.78 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | STOLTZ | 3.8% | 26.64 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | CARROLL STREET | 3.1% | 32.18 | 10 |
| 9 | 3 | WINNING DREAMER | 2.2% | 44.79 | 2 |
| 10 | 10 | SUNNY BOY | 0.8% | 125.58 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 14.5
PLACE
1 25
3 43
7 10.1
QUINELLA
3,7 162
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 284.5
1,7 35.5
3,7 61.5
FORECAST
7,3 198
TIERCE
7,3,1 1,335
TRIO
1,3,7 503
FIRST 4
1,3,5,7 381
QUARTET
7,3,1,5 5,338
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,11/1,3,7 34,056
6TH DOUBLE
11/3 381.5
11/7 170
TRIPLE TRIO
5,12,13/1,3,11/1,3,7 1,693,229
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
5,12,13/1,3,11/Any Combination 22,985