Sha Tin · 2023-05-07 · 14:36
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | PACKING HURRICANE Closed strongly TT 2.04.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 10 | 5.5 | NOSE |
| 2 | 0 | LEADING FORTUNE B A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 7 | 29.0 | NOSE |
| 3 | 0 | TOTAL POWER B K H Chan · D J Hall | K H Chan | D J Hall | 4 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 6 | 3.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | ENJOYING B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 2 | 15.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | S J TOURBILLON B/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 1 | 6.3 | 8-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | SERANGOON Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 8 | 8.2 | 8-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | ABOVE B/TT A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 5 | 10.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | ESCAPE ROUTE Led early H K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 3 | 7.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | SUPERBELLA B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 9 | 24.0 | 18 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-07 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on SOFT going. PACKING HURRICANE, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C Fownes, won by NOSE, with LEADING FORTUNE second and TOTAL POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite NICHOLSON RETURNS finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | NICHOLSON RETURNS | 28.6% | 3.50 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 14.0% | 7.12 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | ENJOYING | 10.3% | 9.75 | 5 |
| 4 | 0 | SERANGOON | 9.2% | 10.83 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 | S J TOURBILLON | 9.0% | 11.11 | 6 |
| 6 | 0 | PACKING HURRICANE | 8.2% | 12.13 | 1 |
| 7 | 0 | ABOVE | 8.2% | 12.27 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | TOTAL POWER | 7.1% | 14.12 | 3 |
| 9 | 0 | SUPERBELLA | 3.3% | 30.15 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | LEADING FORTUNE | 2.1% | 47.00 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 55.5
PLACE
5 70.5
9 18
10 41.5
QUINELLA
5,9 959.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 285.5
5,10 584.5
9,10 117.5
FORECAST
9,5 1,482
TIERCE
9,5,10 17,394
TRIO
5,9,10 4,580
FIRST 4
5,7,9,10 2,612
QUARTET
9,5,10,7 62,405
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 23
3RD DOUBLE
4/5 115.5
4/9 220.5