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Sha Tin · 2023-05-07 · 15:08

Race 5

Class 4 SOFT 1600m Course B 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-07 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on SOFT going. MASTER OF FORTUNE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with SUPERB MOVE second and LIFELINE VISION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite PERFETTO finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.38.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 MASTER OF FORTUNE Closed strongly TT 1.38.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P C Ng 11 10.0 1-1/2
2 12 SUPERB MOVE Led early B/TT S De Sousa · C H Yip 4 6.9 1-1/2
3 13 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D A Hayes 12 10.0 1-1/2
4 7 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · A T Millard 14 36.0 2-3/4
5 4 TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly B/XB A Hamelin · R Gibson 8 17.0 3-1/2
6 1 HAPPY DAY Closed strongly A Badel · W Y So 5 5.4 4
7 2 PERFETTO Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 13 3.8 5-1/4
8 8 OSCAR GLORY V Y L Chung · F C Lor 9 10.0 5-3/4
9 11 JOYFUL CHAMPION B/TT M F Poon · C W Chang 10 99.0 6
10 3 FAST BUCK P L Currie · J Size 2 13.0 7-1/2
11 10 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE K C Leung · C W Chang 1 19.0 10-1/4
12 9 PERFECT TO GREAT SR/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes 7 15.0 10-1/4
13 14 PERFECT ROCK V Borges · Y S Tsui 6 82.0 12
14 6 INDIGENOUS REALM TT M Chadwick · K L Man 3 27.0 28

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER OF FORTUNE2. SUPERB MOVE+1.5L3. LIFELINE VISION+1.5L4. SUPER HONG KONG+2.75L5. TURIN WARRIOR+3.5L6. HAPPY DAY+4L7. PERFETTO+5.25L8. OSCAR GLORY+5.75L9. JOYFUL CHAMPION+6L10. FAST BUCK+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PERFETTO (30.0%) finished 7th — the winner MASTER OF FORTUNE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 PERFETTO 30.0% 3.33 7
2 1 HAPPY DAY 8.6% 11.59 6
3 5 MASTER OF FORTUNE 8.3% 12.00 1
4 4 TURIN WARRIOR 8.0% 12.53 5
5 3 FAST BUCK 6.0% 16.61 10
6 6 INDIGENOUS REALM 5.8% 17.22 14
7 13 LIFELINE VISION 5.6% 17.77 3
8 9 PERFECT TO GREAT 5.5% 18.32 12
9 12 SUPERB MOVE 5.0% 19.90 2
10 8 OSCAR GLORY 4.5% 22.39 8
11 7 SUPER HONG KONG 4.5% 22.41 4
12 11 JOYFUL CHAMPION 3.8% 26.23 9
13 10 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 3.1% 32.38 11
14 14 PERFECT ROCK 1.3% 76.75 13
PERFETTOHAPPY DAYMASTER OF FORTUNE — wonTURIN WARRIORFAST BUCKINDIGENOUS REALMLIFELINE VISIONPERFECT TO GREATSUPERB MOVEOSCAR GLORYSUPER HONG KONGJOYFUL CHAMPIONPRESIDENT'S CHOICEPERFECT ROCK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 102

PLACE

5 27

12 23

13 35.5

QUINELLA

5,12 355.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,12 134

5,13 162

12,13 172

FORECAST

5,12 676

TIERCE

5,12,13 8,853

TRIO

5,12,13 1,715

FIRST 4

5,7,12,13 10,927

QUARTET

5,12,13,7 162,136

All pools (4 more)

1ST TREBLE

4/9/5 1,220

4/9/12 197

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,9,10/5,12,13 698,300

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 21.5

A2

4TH DOUBLE

9/5 533.5

9/12 58