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Sha Tin · 2023-05-28 · 12:33

Race 1

Griffin GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-28 was Griffin over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPER BONUS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 3/4, with HOLY LAKE second and CHANCHENG GLORY third. The 2.8 favourite CHANCHENG GLORY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 SUPER BONUS B 1.10.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng 10 9.5 3/4
2 5 HOLY LAKE XB H Bentley · K W Lui 7 10.0 3/4
3 1 CHANCHENG GLORY XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 2 2.8 2-1/2
4 6 JOYFUL PROSPERITY CP-/XB- H Bowman · C W Chang 9 7.3 2-1/2
5 11 SONIC BOOM L Ferraris · K H Ting 1 12.0 2-3/4
6 2 KAHOLO ANGEL TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 4.2 2-3/4
7 4 HAPPIHOOD B M Chadwick · P C Ng 8 71.0 4-3/4
8 10 GALLANT VALOUR K Teetan · A T Millard 6 7.3 5-1/2
9 3 GREAT DAYS B A Badel · P C Ng 4 54.0 7
10 9 E GLORY M F Poon · K L Man 11 50.0 8-1/2
11 8 DASHING SUCCESS TT1 M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 5 91.0 14

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER BONUS2. HOLY LAKE+0.75L3. CHANCHENG GLORY+2.5L4. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+2.5L5. SONIC BOOM+2.75L6. KAHOLO ANGEL+2.75L7. HAPPIHOOD+4.75L8. GALLANT VALOUR+5.5L9. GREAT DAYS+7L10. E GLORY+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick CHANCHENG GLORY (25.3%) finished 3rd — the winner SUPER BONUS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CHANCHENG GLORY 25.3% 3.96 3
2 2 KAHOLO ANGEL 22.4% 4.47 6
3 10 GALLANT VALOUR 16.5% 6.07 8
4 7 SUPER BONUS 14.6% 6.84 1
5 5 HOLY LAKE 6.4% 15.55 2
6 6 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 4.9% 20.39 4
7 11 SONIC BOOM 4.1% 24.57 5
8 9 E GLORY 2.4% 41.85 10
9 3 GREAT DAYS 1.2% 81.02 9
10 4 HAPPIHOOD 1.2% 85.78 7
11 8 DASHING SUCCESS 1.1% 93.24 11
CHANCHENG GLORYKAHOLO ANGELGALLANT VALOURSUPER BONUS — wonHOLY LAKEJOYFUL PROSPERITYSONIC BOOME GLORYGREAT DAYSHAPPIHOODDASHING SUCCESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 95.5

PLACE

1 13

5 23

7 36.5

QUINELLA

5,7 491.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 44.5

1,7 59.5

5,7 120

FORECAST

7,5 977

TIERCE

7,5,1 3,822

TRIO

1,5,7 418

FIRST 4

1,5,6,7 539

QUARTET

7,5,1,6 19,856

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 40

A2

A1