Sha Tin · 2023-05-28 · 13:03

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD 2000m Course A 7 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-28 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. PACKING HURRICANE, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with HIT THE SHOT second and S J TOURBILLON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.03.05

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	PACKING HURRICANE Closed strongly TT 2.03.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C Fownes	H Bentley	C Fownes	1	127 lb	2.8	HD
2	6	HIT THE SHOT Led early TT Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	3	121 lb	5.3	HD
3	7	S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly B-/XB/SR2/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	4	121 lb	8.1	3/4
4	8	TOTAL POWER B K H Chan · D J Hall	K H Chan	D J Hall	5	115 lb	11.0	1-1/4
5	1	ABOVE B/TT H Bowman · A T Millard	H Bowman	A T Millard	2	130 lb	7.9	1-1/2
6	5	CELTIC TIMES B/XB/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting	M Chadwick	K H Ting	7	122 lb	6.1	2-3/4
7	4	SERANGOON H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	6	118 lb	6.0	6-3/4
—	3	ROMANTIC CHARM B Avdulla · C S Shum	B Avdulla	C S Shum	—	127 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick PACKING HURRICANE (30.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	PACKING HURRICANE	30.3%	3.30	1	2.8
2	6	HIT THE SHOT	17.9%	5.60	2	5.3
3	1	ABOVE	14.9%	6.72	5	7.9
4	5	CELTIC TIMES	10.6%	9.42	6	6.1
5	7	S J TOURBILLON	10.4%	9.60	3	8.1
6	8	TOTAL POWER	8.8%	11.33	4	11.0
7	4	SERANGOON	7.1%	14.11	7	6.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 28

PLACE

2 13

6 17

7 26

QUINELLA

2,6 81.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 34.5

2,7 41.5

6,7 72.5

FORECAST

2,6 152

TIERCE

2,6,7 851

TRIO

2,6,7 144

FIRST 4

2,6,7,8 218

QUARTET

2,6,7,8 2,560

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/2 448.5

7/6 96

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 18.5

A2 —

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