Sha Tin · 2023-05-28 · 16:43
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-28 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. RED LION, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with ERIMO second and GALAXY WITNESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | RED LION Closed strongly 1.21.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 10 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | ERIMO Closed strongly PC-/B2 A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 6 | 9.5 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly B K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 11 | 5.4 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | ATULLIBIGEAL Closed strongly B/H/XB M Dee · D J Hall | M Dee | D J Hall | 7 | 9.2 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 4 | 8.2 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | FLAGSHIP WARRIOR Closed strongly H-/XB- C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 2 | 5.6 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | STREET SCREAM B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 3 | 37.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | SUNNY STAR Closed strongly H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 9 | 44.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 5 | 55.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | SAUVESTRE Led early TT L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 8 | 17.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | MAJESTIC COLOUR B H W Lai · F C Lor | H W Lai | F C Lor | 1 | 10.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | RED LION | 28.3% | 3.53 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | ERIMO | 14.9% | 6.72 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | GALAXY WITNESS | 13.4% | 7.45 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | MAJESTIC COLOUR | 10.5% | 9.52 | 11 |
| 5 | 2 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY | 8.9% | 11.26 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | SAUVESTRE | 5.5% | 18.27 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | ATULLIBIGEAL | 4.1% | 24.21 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | GRATEFUL HEART | 4.1% | 24.61 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | SUNNY STAR | 3.9% | 25.87 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | STREET SCREAM | 3.8% | 26.23 | 7 |
| 11 | 6 | FLAGSHIP WARRIOR | 2.7% | 37.32 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 34
PLACE
1 15.5
5 19
8 30.5
QUINELLA
1,8 158.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 38.5
1,8 64
5,8 80
FORECAST
1,8 333
TIERCE
1,8,5 1,640
TRIO
1,5,8 238
FIRST 4
1,4,5,8 575
QUARTET
1,8,5,4 10,636
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 21
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,9/1,5,8 10,037
8TH DOUBLE
2/1 354.5
2/8 152