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Sha Tin · 2023-05-28 · 17:53

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-28 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CHING, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by C W Chang, won by SH, with HELENE FEELING second and LEADING FORTUNE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.1 favourite HELENE FEELING finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CHING Closed strongly 1.35.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · C W Chang 12 7.3 SH
2 3 HELENE FEELING Closed strongly XB-/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 11 5.1 SH
3 6 LEADING FORTUNE B A Hamelin · J Size 7 26.0 1-1/4
4 14 WAR WEAPON Closed strongly XB/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 2 9.7 1-3/4
5 4 POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly B A Badel · P F Yiu 13 10.0 2-1/2
6 2 HAPPY TOGETHER H/TT H Bentley · R Gibson 6 9.9 3-1/2
7 5 CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 5 17.0 4-1/2
8 11 OWNERS' PRAISE Closed strongly K Teetan · W Y So 9 9.0 5
9 12 SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly V/XB L Ferraris · K H Ting 4 9.6 5
10 10 PODIUM XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 14 30.0 7-1/4
11 7 NEVER TOO SOON Led early TT M Dee · D J Hall 8 28.0 8-1/4
12 9 CASA COSMO B-/XB/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 1 30.0 8-3/4
13 13 SUPER OASIS B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 66.0 11-1/2
14 8 RUN RUN BUDDY CP/TT- K C Leung · F C Lor 3 6.2 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHING2. HELENE FEELING+0.1L3. LEADING FORTUNE+1.25L4. WAR WEAPON+1.75L5. POWERFUL WINGS+2.5L6. HAPPY TOGETHER+3.5L7. CAPITAL LEGEND+4.5L8. OWNERS' PRAISE+5L9. SMILING COLLECTOR+5L10. PODIUM+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HELENE FEELING (17.6%) finished 2nd — the winner CHING was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 HELENE FEELING 17.6% 5.67 2
2 1 CHING 16.0% 6.25 1
3 11 OWNERS' PRAISE 11.0% 9.12 8
4 14 WAR WEAPON 9.1% 10.93 4
5 2 HAPPY TOGETHER 8.7% 11.50 6
6 12 SMILING COLLECTOR 8.2% 12.13 9
7 8 RUN RUN BUDDY 7.3% 13.76 14
8 4 POWERFUL WINGS 5.5% 18.27 5
9 5 CAPITAL LEGEND 4.4% 22.68 7
10 7 NEVER TOO SOON 3.2% 31.23 11
11 9 CASA COSMO 2.7% 37.49 12
12 6 LEADING FORTUNE 2.3% 43.40 3
13 13 SUPER OASIS 2.3% 44.44 13
14 10 PODIUM 1.7% 57.37 10
HELENE FEELINGCHING — wonOWNERS' PRAISEWAR WEAPONHAPPY TOGETHERSMILING COLLECTORRUN RUN BUDDYPOWERFUL WINGSCAPITAL LEGENDNEVER TOO SOONCASA COSMOLEADING FORTUNESUPER OASISPODIUM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 73

PLACE

1 25.5

3 21

6 75

QUINELLA

1,3 200.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 73.5

1,6 293

3,6 254

FORECAST

1,3 355

TIERCE

1,3,6 7,970

TRIO

1,3,6 1,814

FIRST 4

1,3,6,14 5,008

QUARTET

1,3,6,14 104,543

All pools (5 more)

10TH DOUBLE

3/1 1,308.5

3/3 215

2ND TREBLE

1/3/1 4,288

1/3/3 620

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 29.5

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,6/1,3,6 137,261

SIX UP

1/2/2/1/3/1 20,333,336

1,6/2,9/1,2/1,8/3,5/1,3 7,331

1 [Z Purton]

2 [J Size]