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Sha Tin · 2023-05-28 · 14:02

Race 4

Class 2 GOOD 1000m Course A 8 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-28 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. STOLTZ, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with CARROLL STREET second and RUN RUN COOL third. The 2.1 favourite WE ARE HERO finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.56.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 STOLTZ CP 0.56.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 6 7.4 3/4
2 6 CARROLL STREET SR-/B2/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 1 18.0 3/4
3 7 RUN RUN COOL PC H Bentley · F C Lor 8 5.6 1-1/4
4 5 WE ARE HERO V/TT H Bowman · K L Man 3 2.1 2
5 3 WHIZZ KID B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 7 15.0 2
6 1 NERVOUS WITNESS L Hewitson · D A Hayes 2 3.8 3
7 8 SUNNY BOY B/TT Y L Chung · W Y So 5 94.0 8
8 2 PING HAI GALAXY K Teetan · J Size 4 30.0 18

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STOLTZ2. CARROLL STREET+0.75L3. RUN RUN COOL+1.25L4. WE ARE HERO+2L5. WHIZZ KID+2L6. NERVOUS WITNESS+3L7. SUNNY BOY+8L8. PING HAI GALAXY+18L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick WE ARE HERO (50.7%) finished 4th — the winner STOLTZ was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 WE ARE HERO 50.7% 1.97 4
2 4 STOLTZ 13.9% 7.19 1
3 2 PING HAI GALAXY 11.1% 8.97 8
4 7 RUN RUN COOL 8.0% 12.54 3
5 1 NERVOUS WITNESS 6.6% 15.17 6
6 3 WHIZZ KID 4.5% 22.35 5
7 6 CARROLL STREET 3.4% 29.76 2
8 8 SUNNY BOY 1.9% 54.00 7
WE ARE HEROSTOLTZ — wonPING HAI GALAXYRUN RUN COOLNERVOUS WITNESSWHIZZ KIDCARROLL STREETSUNNY BOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 74.5

PLACE

4 23

6 30

7 16

QUINELLA

4,6 408.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 97

4,7 52

6,7 95.5

FORECAST

4,6 805

TIERCE

4,6,7 4,208

TRIO

4,6,7 700

FIRST 4

4,5,6,7 138

QUARTET

4,6,7,5 7,076

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 56.5

A2

A1

3RD DOUBLE

7/4 433

7/6 110.5