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Sha Tin · 2023-05-28 · 13:31

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-28 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. THE GOOD DEAL, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-1/2, with FINGERS CROSSED second and SUNSHINE LEGENDARY third. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 THE GOOD DEAL TT 1.09.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte 2 3.8 2-1/2
2 4 FINGERS CROSSED P-/H/B1/TT Z Purton · J Size 12 5.4 2-1/2
3 3 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY CP/H2 K C Leung · F C Lor 11 13.0 2-1/2
4 2 VAMOS H- H Bowman · D J Hall 6 7.3 3-1/4
5 10 GOLDEN MISSION B/TT L Hewitson · C W Chang 14 33.0 3-1/4
6 13 SURE WINNER M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 3 23.0 3-3/4
7 6 BIRDSVILLE B-/SR2/TT M Dee · D A Hayes 8 11.0 4-3/4
8 1 TURBO POWER E C W Wong · K W Lui 9 6.5 4-3/4
9 12 LITTLE PLAYER PC-/XB/B2/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 7 14.0 5-1/4
10 9 DAY DAY RICH B/TT K Teetan · T P Yung 10 10.0 5-1/2
11 5 HAPPY FOREVER V/TT A Badel · K L Man 13 35.0 5-3/4
12 8 SMILING MOON B H N Wong · K H Ting 5 133.0 6
13 14 DASHING GENIUS TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 41.0 7-3/4
14 11 LE PLUS VITE CP/XB M F Poon · P C Ng 1 74.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE GOOD DEAL2. FINGERS CROSSED+2.5L3. SUNSHINE LEGENDARY+2.5L4. VAMOS+3.25L5. GOLDEN MISSION+3.25L6. SURE WINNER+3.75L7. BIRDSVILLE+4.75L8. TURBO POWER+4.75L9. LITTLE PLAYER+5.25L10. DAY DAY RICH+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick THE GOOD DEAL (15.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 THE GOOD DEAL 15.3% 6.53 1
2 4 FINGERS CROSSED 12.7% 7.87 2
3 2 VAMOS 12.5% 7.99 4
4 3 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY 9.5% 10.53 3
5 1 TURBO POWER 8.3% 12.12 8
6 6 BIRDSVILLE 7.8% 12.78 7
7 9 DAY DAY RICH 6.7% 14.95 10
8 10 GOLDEN MISSION 6.2% 16.18 5
9 12 LITTLE PLAYER 6.1% 16.42 9
10 5 HAPPY FOREVER 4.4% 22.72 11
11 14 DASHING GENIUS 4.3% 23.21 13
12 13 SURE WINNER 2.8% 35.77 6
13 11 LE PLUS VITE 2.4% 41.06 14
14 8 SMILING MOON 1.0% 100.88 12
THE GOOD DEAL — wonFINGERS CROSSEDVAMOSSUNSHINE LEGENDARYTURBO POWERBIRDSVILLEDAY DAY RICHGOLDEN MISSIONLITTLE PLAYERHAPPY FOREVERDASHING GENIUSSURE WINNERLE PLUS VITESMILING MOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 38.5

PLACE

3 39.5

4 22

7 16

QUINELLA

4,7 111.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 171.5

3,7 98.5

4,7 50.5

FORECAST

7,4 242

TIERCE

7,4,3 2,572

TRIO

3,4,7 562

FIRST 4

2,3,4,7 706

QUARTET

7,4,3,2 13,348

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,7/3,4,7 10,292

2ND DOUBLE

2/4 44.5

2/7 102.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 25