Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2023-07-16 · 18:31

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-16 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. KARMA, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1, with ARIEL second and ENDEARED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite COPARTNER AMBITION finished 13th.

Result

Official · 1.22.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 KARMA Closed strongly TT 1.22.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 4 4.4 1
2 5 ARIEL CP/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 7 4.0 1
3 3 ENDEARED Closed strongly XB A Badel · J Size 8 9.2 3-1/2
4 13 SPEEDSTAR Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 2 22.0 4
5 6 KASI FARASI Closed strongly B Y L Chung · C H Yip 9 14.0 5-1/4
6 12 FASTPASS B/XB/SR1 M L Yeung · K W Lui 11 144.0 6
7 7 DIVINE ERA Led early H/TT K Teetan · K H Ting 12 16.0 6-1/4
8 8 EVER BLESSING CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 14 43.0 7
9 2 MAYHEM H M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 28.0 7-3/4
10 4 BEAR SLAM B-/XB1 C Wong · C W Chang 3 89.0 7-3/4
11 10 AMAZING TRAVIS Closed strongly H/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 13 117.0 8-1/2
12 11 MULTIDARLING Closed strongly CP-/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 10 24.0 8-3/4
13 1 COPARTNER AMBITION B-/TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 5 3.6 9-1/4
14 14 MY INTELLIGENT V/TT H T Mo · L Ho 1 16.0 13-1/4
0 SPEEDY CHARIOT H Bowman · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KARMA2. ARIEL+1L3. ENDEARED+3.5L4. SPEEDSTAR+4L5. KASI FARASI+5.25L6. FASTPASS+6L7. DIVINE ERA+6.25L8. EVER BLESSING+7L9. MAYHEM+7.75L10. BEAR SLAM+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ARIEL (29.6%) finished 2nd — the winner KARMA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 ARIEL 29.6% 3.37 2
2 9 KARMA 14.6% 6.83 1
3 3 ENDEARED 10.9% 9.19 3
4 11 MULTIDARLING 8.2% 12.20 12
5 6 KASI FARASI 7.2% 13.87 5
6 1 COPARTNER AMBITION 6.4% 15.53 13
7 7 DIVINE ERA 6.3% 15.91 7
8 8 EVER BLESSING 4.0% 25.21 8
9 13 SPEEDSTAR 3.3% 29.86 4
10 2 MAYHEM 3.0% 33.49 9
11 14 MY INTELLIGENT 2.4% 40.84 14
12 10 AMAZING TRAVIS 1.9% 53.07 11
13 4 BEAR SLAM 1.3% 76.69 10
14 12 FASTPASS 0.8% 130.77 6
ARIELKARMA — wonENDEAREDMULTIDARLINGKASI FARASICOPARTNER AMBITIONDIVINE ERAEVER BLESSINGSPEEDSTARMAYHEMMY INTELLIGENTAMAZING TRAVISBEAR SLAMFASTPASS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 44.5

PLACE

3 30.5

5 17

9 14

QUINELLA

5,9 114

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 83.5

3,9 77

5,9 48

FORECAST

9,5 242

TIERCE

9,5,3 1,157

TRIO

3,5,9 218

FIRST 4

3,5,9,13 806

QUARTET

9,5,3,13 13,565

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 25.5

5TH DOUBLE

1/5 187

1/9 1,419