Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2023-07-16 · 17:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-16 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. BULLETPROOF, ridden by H Bowman and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with BILLIONAIRE SECRET second and PROSECCO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite BILLIONAIRE SECRET finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.48.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 BULLETPROOF Closed strongly V 1.48.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · P F Yiu 4 39.0 1-1/4
2 4 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB C Y Ho · P C Ng 9 2.2 1-1/4
3 10 PROSECCO Closed strongly SR/V1/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 5.5 1-1/4
4 1 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard 5 6.2 2-1/2
5 6 WIN WIN FIGHTER B L Hewitson · K W Lui 12 16.0 3
6 12 HIGH CLOUD Closed strongly SR-/XB/V1/TT1 A Badel · D J Whyte 14 35.0 3
7 8 JOYFUL GENIUS Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D J Hall 8 19.0 5
8 7 RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly B M L Yeung · K L Man 11 20.0 5
9 2 PACKING SUCCEEDER TT K C Leung · L Ho 1 11.0 5-1/4
10 5 CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 2 20.0 5-1/2
11 11 LEATHER MASTER B H T Mo · T P Yung 13 214.0 6
12 13 OSCAR GLORY V M F Poon · F C Lor 6 25.0 13-1/2
13 9 YEABOI TT Y L Chung · C H Yip 7 57.0 14
14 14 LUCKY VICTOR Led early B/TT C Wong · K H Ting 10 88.0 19-1/4
0 FOREVER FOLKS A Hamelin · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BULLETPROOF2. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+1.25L3. PROSECCO+1.25L4. SUPER HONG KONG+2.5L5. WIN WIN FIGHTER+3L6. HIGH CLOUD+3L7. JOYFUL GENIUS+5L8. RIGHT AS RAIN+5L9. PACKING SUCCEEDER+5.25L10. CIRCUIT NINE+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BILLIONAIRE SECRET (18.4%) finished 2nd — the winner BULLETPROOF was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 18.4% 5.42 2
2 10 PROSECCO 15.3% 6.55 3
3 1 SUPER HONG KONG 14.2% 7.06 4
4 2 PACKING SUCCEEDER 7.6% 13.24 9
5 8 JOYFUL GENIUS 6.7% 14.94 7
6 9 YEABOI 6.4% 15.57 13
7 6 WIN WIN FIGHTER 5.6% 17.90 5
8 13 OSCAR GLORY 5.6% 17.94 12
9 14 LUCKY VICTOR 4.7% 21.28 14
10 3 BULLETPROOF 4.3% 23.28 1
11 5 CIRCUIT NINE 3.6% 27.86 10
12 12 HIGH CLOUD 3.5% 28.76 6
13 7 RIGHT AS RAIN 3.4% 29.56 8
14 11 LEATHER MASTER 0.9% 117.60 11
BILLIONAIRE SECRETPROSECCOSUPER HONG KONGPACKING SUCCEEDERJOYFUL GENIUSYEABOIWIN WIN FIGHTEROSCAR GLORYLUCKY VICTORBULLETPROOF — wonCIRCUIT NINEHIGH CLOUDRIGHT AS RAINLEATHER MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 398

PLACE

3 81.5

4 13

10 19

QUINELLA

3,4 452

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 151

3,10 248

4,10 31

FORECAST

3,4 868

TIERCE

3,4,10 7,636

TRIO

3,4,10 624

FIRST 4

1,3,4,10 604

QUARTET

3,4,10,1 22,857

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 35

A1

3RD DOUBLE

4/3 3,005

4/4 116.5

8/3 755.5

8/4 17