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Sha Tin · 2023-07-16 · 16:01

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course A 13 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-16 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FINGERS CROSSED, ridden by L Currie and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with SOARING TOWER second and I GIVE third. The 2.7 favourite VAMOS finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.10.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 FINGERS CROSSED B/H/TT 1.10.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · J Size 4 12.0 3/4
2 7 SOARING TOWER B2/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 10 9.2 3/4
3 3 I GIVE CP-/TT- C L Chau · P C Ng 7 8.2 3/4
4 5 VAMOS H Bowman · D J Hall 1 2.7 1-1/2
5 13 VALHALLA XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 9.7 1-1/2
6 6 MIRACLES B M F Poon · K L Man 8 4.1 6-1/4
7 14 LITTLE PLAYER B/XB/TT K Teetan · J Richards 11 40.0 6-3/4
8 4 OUR CLASS ACT H H Bentley · A T Millard 6 30.0 6-3/4
9 2 BRILLIANT PIONEER H/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 2 14.0 7-1/4
10 1 SHENZHOU TWELVE B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 3 111.0 8-1/4
11 10 NORDIC COMBINED B/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 13 36.0 12-1/2
12 9 FLASH FAMOUS B/TT M L Yeung · C H Yip 5 70.0 12-1/2
13 11 BELL OF VICTORY B-/SR1/TT- L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 56.0 18-1/4
12 NOIR RIDER Y L Chung · L Ho

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FINGERS CROSSED2. SOARING TOWER+0.75L3. I GIVE+0.75L4. VAMOS+1.5L5. VALHALLA+1.5L6. MIRACLES+6.25L7. LITTLE PLAYER+6.75L8. OUR CLASS ACT+6.75L9. BRILLIANT PIONEER+7.25L10. SHENZHOU TWELVE+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick VAMOS (26.1%) finished 4th — the winner FINGERS CROSSED was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 VAMOS 26.1% 3.84 4
2 13 VALHALLA 11.9% 8.43 5
3 7 SOARING TOWER 11.3% 8.81 2
4 8 FINGERS CROSSED 9.4% 10.63 1
5 2 BRILLIANT PIONEER 9.0% 11.14 9
6 6 MIRACLES 7.2% 13.88 6
7 3 I GIVE 7.2% 13.90 3
8 4 OUR CLASS ACT 6.0% 16.57 8
9 14 LITTLE PLAYER 3.6% 27.99 7
10 10 NORDIC COMBINED 3.3% 29.91 11
11 11 BELL OF VICTORY 2.8% 36.06 13
12 9 FLASH FAMOUS 1.3% 76.12 12
13 1 SHENZHOU TWELVE 0.9% 109.67 10
VAMOSVALHALLASOARING TOWERFINGERS CROSSED — wonBRILLIANT PIONEERMIRACLESI GIVEOUR CLASS ACTLITTLE PLAYERNORDIC COMBINEDBELL OF VICTORYFLASH FAMOUSSHENZHOU TWELVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 126

PLACE

3 22.5

7 26.5

8 31.5

QUINELLA

7,8 396.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 133.5

3,8 135.5

7,8 121.5

FORECAST

8,7 764

TIERCE

8,7,3 7,204

TRIO

3,7,8 1,284

FIRST 4

3,5,7,8 586

QUARTET

8,7,3,5 19,198

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 36.5

A2

A1