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Sha Tin · 2023-07-16 · 20:16

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course A 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-16 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. LEADING FORTUNE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by N, with UNIVERSAL HORIZON second and E LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite UNIVERSAL HORIZON finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly B 1.35.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size 3 6.4 N
2 8 UNIVERSAL HORIZON Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 3.7 N
3 7 E LEGEND Led early B Avdulla · K L Man 13 11.0 1/2
4 1 AMAZING VICTORY Closed strongly H2 Z Purton · L Ho 7 5.0 2-3/4
5 12 MASTER OF FORTUNE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · P C Ng 10 5.1 3
6 10 PEGASUS GENERAL Closed strongly V H Bentley · K H Ting 8 122.0 3
7 4 CHARITY BINGO M F Poon · C S Shum 2 13.0 3-3/4
8 2 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 4 10.0 4
9 5 SO WE JOY CP-/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang 1 33.0 4-1/2
10 14 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 12 36.0 5-1/2
11 11 PRECISE EXPRESS H-/TT2 K C Leung · P F Yiu 14 76.0 5-3/4
12 13 SERANGOON H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 30.0 9-3/4
13 3 PERFECT TEAM B1/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 6 55.0 10-1/2
9 IVY LEAGUE A Badel · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LEADING FORTUNE2. UNIVERSAL HORIZON+0.05L3. E LEGEND+0.5L4. AMAZING VICTORY+2.75L5. MASTER OF FORTUNE+3L6. PEGASUS GENERAL+3L7. CHARITY BINGO+3.75L8. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT+4L9. SO WE JOY+4.5L10. ENTRUSTED+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick UNIVERSAL HORIZON (20.4%) finished 2nd — the winner LEADING FORTUNE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 20.4% 4.89 2
2 1 AMAZING VICTORY 15.2% 6.57 4
3 12 MASTER OF FORTUNE 12.4% 8.04 5
4 2 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 10.3% 9.75 8
5 6 LEADING FORTUNE 9.3% 10.78 1
6 5 SO WE JOY 7.5% 13.38 9
7 3 PERFECT TEAM 5.5% 18.21 13
8 7 E LEGEND 5.2% 19.37 3
9 14 ENTRUSTED 3.9% 25.72 10
10 10 PEGASUS GENERAL 3.3% 30.24 6
11 11 PRECISE EXPRESS 2.5% 40.01 11
12 13 SERANGOON 2.4% 41.76 12
13 4 CHARITY BINGO 2.1% 46.69 7
UNIVERSAL HORIZONAMAZING VICTORYMASTER OF FORTUNECHIU CHOW SPIRITLEADING FORTUNE — wonSO WE JOYPERFECT TEAME LEGENDENTRUSTEDPEGASUS GENERALPRECISE EXPRESSSERANGOONCHARITY BINGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 64.5

PLACE

6 23.5

7 31

8 15.5

QUINELLA

6,8 126.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 108

6,8 50.5

7,8 69

FORECAST

6,8 285

TIERCE

6,8,7 1,941

TRIO

6,7,8 429

FIRST 4

1,6,7,8 357

QUARTET

6,8,7,1 9,665

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 27

A1

A2

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,5/6,7>8,9 11,941

8TH DOUBLE

5/6 287.5

5/8,9 44