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Sha Tin · 2024-06-23 · 08:32

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 9 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-23 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. TALENTS AMBITION, ridden by H Bentley and trained by M Newnham, won by 1-3/4, with PERFECT TEAM second and BERLIN TANGO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite PERFECT TEAM finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 TALENTS AMBITION Closed strongly B/XB 1.39.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · M Newnham 9 4.4 1-3/4
2 4 PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly H/P/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 3.3 1-3/4
3 1 BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 5 5.7 3
4 8 SURUGA BAY Led early V/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 1 15.0 3
5 2 APACHE PASS Closed strongly BO/XB H Bowman · P C Ng 8 6.0 3-1/2
6 3 ALACRITY V-/PC2/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 6 14.0 4
7 7 SO WE JOY H/TT A Atzeni · C W Chang 4 14.0 4-1/2
8 5 SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 7.9 5-1/4
9 6 TOY SOLTERO SR B Thompson · C W Chang 7 70.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TALENTS AMBITION2. PERFECT TEAM+1.75L3. BERLIN TANGO+3L4. SURUGA BAY+3L5. APACHE PASS+3.5L6. ALACRITY+4L7. SO WE JOY+4.5L8. SUPER WIN DRAGON+5.25L9. TOY SOLTERO+11.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PERFECT TEAM (40.5%) finished 2nd — the winner TALENTS AMBITION was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 PERFECT TEAM 40.5% 2.47 2
2 1 BERLIN TANGO 11.2% 8.94 3
3 7 SO WE JOY 9.2% 10.90 7
4 9 TALENTS AMBITION 8.7% 11.43 1
5 5 SUPER WIN DRAGON 8.2% 12.26 8
6 2 APACHE PASS 8.1% 12.31 5
7 3 ALACRITY 7.5% 13.42 6
8 8 SURUGA BAY 5.7% 17.53 4
9 6 TOY SOLTERO 1.0% 103.36 9
PERFECT TEAMBERLIN TANGOSO WE JOYTALENTS AMBITION — wonSUPER WIN DRAGONAPACHE PASSALACRITYSURUGA BAYTOY SOLTERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 44.5

PLACE

1 19.5

4 13

9 19

QUINELLA

4,9 93

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 32.5

1,9 54

4,9 38

FORECAST

9,4 191

TIERCE

9,4,1 590

TRIO

1,4,9 122

FIRST 4

1,4,8,9 274

QUARTET

9,4,1,8 4,521

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

11/4 24

11/9 146.5