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Sha Tin · 2024-06-23 · 08:02

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-23 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. YUEN LONG ELITE, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with MY WISH second and BEAUTY MISSILE third. The 2.4 favourite BEAUTY MISSILE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 YUEN LONG ELITE 1.08.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · K L Man 1 4.4 SH
2 10 MY WISH L Ferraris · M Newnham 6 6.1 SH
3 1 BEAUTY MISSILE PC Z Purton · F C Lor 10 2.4 1-1/2
4 7 DRAGON JOY K Teetan · P F Yiu 8 6.1 2
5 12 SWEET SMILE H1 H Bowman · J Size 3 21.0 3
6 5 CAMP FIRE H/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 5 107.0 4
7 14 SMART LEADER PC/XB/TT A Atzeni · W Y So 11 46.0 4
8 3 ROBOT MASTER B/SR/TT A Hamelin · P C Ng 2 43.0 4
9 4 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 9 14.0 4
10 9 JUBILANT WINNER SR1/TT1 B Thompson · J Richards 13 85.0 4-1/4
11 13 EXCELLENT DADDY TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 14 89.0 6
12 2 JUDY'S GREAT TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 12 64.0 8-1/4
13 8 FOXHUNTER GO C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 40.0 10-1/2
14 6 DEAL COMPLETED TT1 H Bentley · K H Ting 7 49.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YUEN LONG ELITE2. MY WISH+0.1L3. BEAUTY MISSILE+1.5L4. DRAGON JOY+2L5. SWEET SMILE+3L6. CAMP FIRE+4L7. SMART LEADER+4L8. ROBOT MASTER+4L9. YOU'REMYEVERYTHING+4L10. JUBILANT WINNER+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEAUTY MISSILE (23.1%) finished 3rd — the winner YUEN LONG ELITE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BEAUTY MISSILE 23.1% 4.32 3
2 11 YUEN LONG ELITE 12.7% 7.86 1
3 7 DRAGON JOY 9.4% 10.64 4
4 8 FOXHUNTER GO 8.8% 11.42 13
5 12 SWEET SMILE 8.0% 12.57 5
6 10 MY WISH 7.2% 13.86 2
7 6 DEAL COMPLETED 7.0% 14.36 14
8 2 JUDY'S GREAT 5.7% 17.42 12
9 4 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING 5.0% 19.89 9
10 14 SMART LEADER 3.5% 28.60 7
11 5 CAMP FIRE 3.4% 29.44 6
12 9 JUBILANT WINNER 2.7% 37.04 10
13 13 EXCELLENT DADDY 2.7% 37.71 11
14 3 ROBOT MASTER 0.8% 120.29 8
BEAUTY MISSILEYUEN LONG ELITE — wonDRAGON JOYFOXHUNTER GOSWEET SMILEMY WISHDEAL COMPLETEDJUDY'S GREATYOU'REMYEVERYTHINGSMART LEADERCAMP FIREJUBILANT WINNEREXCELLENT DADDYROBOT MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 44.5

PLACE

1 12.5

10 20.5

11 17.5

QUINELLA

10,11 124

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 39.5

1,11 28

10,11 44

FORECAST

11,10 247

TIERCE

11,10,1 711

TRIO

1,10,11 105

FIRST 4

1,7,10,11 115

QUARTET

11,10,1,7 3,086