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Sha Tin · 2024-06-23 · 10:34

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-23 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TOP PEAK, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by 3/4, with JUMBO FORTUNE second and BEAUTY ALLIANCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite MASTER MASTERMIND finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 TOP PEAK Closed strongly TT 1.21.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung 7 5.7 3/4
2 12 JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly PC/XB M F Poon · P C Ng 13 17.0 3/4
3 10 BEAUTY ALLIANCE Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 8 21.0 1
4 5 MASTER MASTERMIND Closed strongly TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 3 3.3 1-1/2
5 14 LUCKY PLANET B/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 12 24.0 2
6 3 LET'S DO IT Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D J Hall 6 21.0 3-1/4
7 4 LUCKY GOLD Closed strongly B L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 41.0 3-1/2
8 1 COMING PATCH Closed strongly A Hamelin · K H Ting 5 19.0 3-3/4
9 13 SMART FIGHTER CP1/H1/TT B Avdulla · P F Yiu 2 17.0 5
10 8 KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 9 17.0 6
11 11 EVER SMART K C Leung · F C Lor 14 93.0 7-1/2
12 9 VANTASTIC CHOICE Led early Y L Chung · C H Yip 11 10.0 9
13 2 SUNNY DA BEST TT A Atzeni · W Y So 1 4.2 9-1/4
14 7 AUTUMN DELIGHT TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 77.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOP PEAK2. JUMBO FORTUNE+0.75L3. BEAUTY ALLIANCE+1L4. MASTER MASTERMIND+1.5L5. LUCKY PLANET+2L6. LET'S DO IT+3.25L7. LUCKY GOLD+3.5L8. COMING PATCH+3.75L9. SMART FIGHTER+5L10. KASA PAPA+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MASTER MASTERMIND (15.9%) finished 4th — the winner TOP PEAK was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MASTER MASTERMIND 15.9% 6.28 4
2 10 BEAUTY ALLIANCE 12.6% 7.97 3
3 2 SUNNY DA BEST 11.8% 8.48 13
4 6 TOP PEAK 10.8% 9.30 1
5 14 LUCKY PLANET 8.0% 12.57 5
6 13 SMART FIGHTER 7.6% 13.08 9
7 3 LET'S DO IT 7.3% 13.77 6
8 9 VANTASTIC CHOICE 5.6% 18.01 12
9 8 KASA PAPA 4.6% 21.54 10
10 12 JUMBO FORTUNE 4.3% 23.49 2
11 4 LUCKY GOLD 3.9% 25.47 7
12 1 COMING PATCH 3.6% 27.90 8
13 11 EVER SMART 2.6% 39.12 11
14 7 AUTUMN DELIGHT 1.6% 62.37 14
MASTER MASTERMINDBEAUTY ALLIANCESUNNY DA BESTTOP PEAK — wonLUCKY PLANETSMART FIGHTERLET'S DO ITVANTASTIC CHOICEKASA PAPAJUMBO FORTUNELUCKY GOLDCOMING PATCHEVER SMARTAUTUMN DELIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 57.5

PLACE

6 19.5

10 58

12 57.5

QUINELLA

6,12 645

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 190

6,12 210.5

10,12 494

FORECAST

6,12 1,014

TIERCE

6,12,10 14,055

TRIO

6,10,12 3,228

FIRST 4

5,6,10,12 3,238

QUARTET

6,12,10,5 89,811

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

5/6 1,928

5/12 569