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Sha Tin · 2024-06-23 · 09:02

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-23 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. YOUNG BRILLIANT, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with G LINER second and LUCKY BANNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite BRAVE WITNESS finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.38.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 YOUNG BRILLIANT Closed strongly B2 1.38.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C H Yip 9 34.0 SH
2 2 G LINER Closed strongly H/P/XB/TT H Bowman · J Richards 5 8.3 SH
3 11 LUCKY BANNER Led early H/TT A Badel · C Fownes 8 10.0 1/2
4 9 EXCEL WONGCHOY Closed strongly B-/H1/P1/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 2 12.0 1-1/4
5 14 BRAVE WITNESS CP/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 1 2.1 1-1/2
6 13 SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly B/XB H Bentley · D J Hall 6 21.0 4-1/2
7 12 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B B Thompson · C W Chang 7 15.0 4-1/2
8 3 VIVA HUNTER TT E C W Wong · K L Man 4 8.5 5
9 4 FLOOF Closed strongly CP/TT H T Mo · K W Lui 12 93.0 5
10 7 HAKKA RADIANCE P-/XB1/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo 11 32.0 5-1/4
11 8 MISSION BRAVO Closed strongly B L Hewitson · M Newnham 10 12.0 6-1/4
12 6 SUNNY DARLING PC-/SR1/TT K C Leung · P C Ng 3 34.0 7
13 5 MIDORI BURLY B-/TT A Hamelin · P F Yiu 13 51.0 8
14 10 STRONGEST BOY B/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes 14 59.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YOUNG BRILLIANT2. G LINER+0.1L3. LUCKY BANNER+0.5L4. EXCEL WONGCHOY+1.25L5. BRAVE WITNESS+1.5L6. SUN OF MAKFI+4.5L7. FOREVER FOLKS+4.5L8. VIVA HUNTER+5L9. FLOOF+5L10. HAKKA RADIANCE+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BRAVE WITNESS (26.3%) finished 5th — the winner YOUNG BRILLIANT was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 BRAVE WITNESS 26.3% 3.81 5
2 3 VIVA HUNTER 15.0% 6.68 8
3 2 G LINER 10.2% 9.76 2
4 11 LUCKY BANNER 8.8% 11.35 3
5 13 SUN OF MAKFI 8.2% 12.15 6
6 10 STRONGEST BOY 6.2% 16.05 14
7 6 SUNNY DARLING 6.0% 16.65 12
8 8 MISSION BRAVO 5.3% 18.83 11
9 9 EXCEL WONGCHOY 3.6% 27.84 4
10 12 FOREVER FOLKS 3.3% 30.14 7
11 1 YOUNG BRILLIANT 2.4% 41.77 1
12 7 HAKKA RADIANCE 2.1% 46.52 10
13 5 MIDORI BURLY 1.8% 55.95 13
14 4 FLOOF 0.7% 142.30 9
BRAVE WITNESSVIVA HUNTERG LINERLUCKY BANNERSUN OF MAKFISTRONGEST BOYSUNNY DARLINGMISSION BRAVOEXCEL WONGCHOYFOREVER FOLKSYOUNG BRILLIANT — wonHAKKA RADIANCEMIDORI BURLYFLOOF

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 348

PLACE

1 108

2 22.5

11 32

QUINELLA

1,2 2,046

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 581

1,11 618

2,11 147

FORECAST

1,2 3,965

TIERCE

1,2,11 50,930

TRIO

1,2,11 6,346

FIRST 4

1,2,9,11 15,600

QUARTET

1,2,11,9 526,895

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,9/1,2,11 103,577

2ND DOUBLE

9/1 1,154.5

9/2 72