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Sha Tin · 2024-06-23 · 18:01

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 GREENWICH Closed strongly TT 1.21.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng 11 17.0 1
2 8 STORMING DRAGON Led early CP-/B1/TT Z Purton · J Richards 8 4.0 1
3 4 STEPS AHEAD Closed strongly H Bowman · K W Lui 5 2.4 1-1/4
4 2 ONLY U Closed strongly CP-/B2/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 2 34.0 3-1/4
5 1 AMAZING DUCK CP E C W Wong · K H Ting 6 4.9 4-1/4
6 12 GREAT SPIRIT Closed strongly B-/TT- M F Poon · C H Yip 10 47.0 4-1/2
7 7 MEEPMEEP Closed strongly B/E1/TT B Avdulla · J Size 4 13.0 5-1/2
8 14 GLUCK RACER Closed strongly H K Teetan · W K Mo 7 13.0 7-1/2
9 6 FOOLISH HEART Closed strongly V/TT Y L Chung · C W Chang 13 16.0 8-1/4
10 10 WINDICATOR FAMILY Closed strongly B A Badel · D J Hall 9 112.0 8-3/4
11 11 CIRCUIT MAXIMUS CP1/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 3 124.0 9-1/4
12 13 GAMEPLAYER WARRIOR Closed strongly SR/XB/TT1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte 14 211.0 10-1/2
13 9 TRIPLE BLISS K C Leung · F C Lor 1 159.0 11-3/4
14 3 APOLAR FIGHTER B- H T Mo · P F Yiu 12 201.0 17

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-23 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GREENWICH, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by 1, with STORMING DRAGON second and STEPS AHEAD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite STEPS AHEAD finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GREENWICH—2. STORMING DRAGON+1L3. STEPS AHEAD+1.25L4. ONLY U+3.25L5. AMAZING DUCK+4.25L6. GREAT SPIRIT+4.5L7. MEEPMEEP+5.5L8. GLUCK RACER+7.5L9. FOOLISH HEART+8.25L10. WINDICATOR FAMILY+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STORMING DRAGON (26.2%) finished 2nd — the winner GREENWICH was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 STORMING DRAGON 26.2% 3.82 2
2 4 STEPS AHEAD 25.8% 3.88 3
3 14 GLUCK RACER 10.6% 9.45 8
4 1 AMAZING DUCK 9.9% 10.14 5
5 7 MEEPMEEP 7.8% 12.87 7
6 5 GREENWICH 4.3% 23.25 1
7 2 ONLY U 3.9% 25.58 4
8 6 FOOLISH HEART 3.5% 28.78 9
9 10 WINDICATOR FAMILY 3.1% 32.26 10
10 12 GREAT SPIRIT 2.9% 34.81 6
11 11 CIRCUIT MAXIMUS 0.8% 119.73 11
12 13 GAMEPLAYER WARRIOR 0.5% 189.84 12
13 3 APOLAR FIGHTER 0.4% 240.56 14
14 9 TRIPLE BLISS 0.4% 256.94 13
STORMING DRAGONSTEPS AHEADGLUCK RACERAMAZING DUCKMEEPMEEPGREENWICH — wonONLY UFOOLISH HEARTWINDICATOR FAMILYGREAT SPIRITCIRCUIT MAXIMUSGAMEPLAYER WARRIORAPOLAR FIGHTERTRIPLE BLISS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 177

PLACE

4 11.5

5 38.5

8 15

QUINELLA

5,8 371

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 81

4,8 25

5,8 116

FORECAST

5,8 904

TIERCE

5,8,4 3,945

TRIO

4,5,8 391

FIRST 4

2,4,5,8 1,567

QUARTET

5,8,4,2 57,016

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/6/5 34,370

1/6/8 1,377

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,9/4,5,8 17,534

4TH DOUBLE

6/5 1,348.5

6/8 18