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Sha Tin · 2025-01-26 · 04:35

Race 1

Class 5 1650m 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-26 was Class 5 over 1650m. PRECISION GOAL, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2-1/2, with YODA'S CHOICE second and YEABOI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite YODA'S CHOICE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 PRECISION GOAL Closed strongly TT 1.39.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D A Hayes 12 11.0 2-1/2
2 2 YODA'S CHOICE Led early CP/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 8 3.2 2-1/2
3 11 YEABOI Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C H Yip 6 8.2 4-3/4
4 10 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B-/V2/TT A Pouchin · C H Yip 5 32.0 6
5 7 COLOURFUL BARON Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 10 14.0 8-3/4
6 13 COOL BLUE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W K Mo 14 8.9 9-1/2
7 4 SONIC BOOM TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 3 11.0 10-1/4
8 12 TSUEN WAN GLORY TT P N Wong · K L Man 13 29.0 10-1/2
9 5 SOLAR GOGO B A Hamelin · T P Yung 2 21.0 10-3/4
10 1 SKY PROPHET TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 9 12.0 12-1/4
11 9 CASA LEGEND P/TT Y L Chung · C W Chang 7 41.0 12-1/2
12 8 SPEED SWORD Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · M Newnham 1 24.0 13
13 6 AROMATICA PC1/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 11 8.7 13-1/2
14 14 JOYFUL CHAMPION B/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 4 18.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRECISION GOAL2. YODA'S CHOICE+2.5L3. YEABOI+4.75L4. SUPER HONG KONG+6L5. COLOURFUL BARON+8.75L6. COOL BLUE+9.5L7. SONIC BOOM+10.25L8. TSUEN WAN GLORY+10.5L9. SOLAR GOGO+10.75L10. SKY PROPHET+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick YODA'S CHOICE (19.5%) finished 2nd — the winner PRECISION GOAL was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 YODA'S CHOICE 19.5% 5.13 2
2 4 SONIC BOOM 14.1% 7.11 7
3 13 COOL BLUE 9.0% 11.17 6
4 5 SOLAR GOGO 8.3% 12.01 9
5 11 YEABOI 7.8% 12.80 3
6 3 PRECISION GOAL 7.2% 13.88 1
7 1 SKY PROPHET 6.1% 16.53 10
8 7 COLOURFUL BARON 6.0% 16.78 5
9 8 SPEED SWORD 5.9% 16.90 12
10 6 AROMATICA 5.0% 20.04 13
11 14 JOYFUL CHAMPION 3.5% 28.90 14
12 10 SUPER HONG KONG 2.8% 36.27 4
13 9 CASA LEGEND 2.6% 38.54 11
14 12 TSUEN WAN GLORY 2.4% 41.25 8
YODA'S CHOICESONIC BOOMCOOL BLUESOLAR GOGOYEABOIPRECISION GOAL — wonSKY PROPHETCOLOURFUL BARONSPEED SWORDAROMATICAJOYFUL CHAMPIONSUPER HONG KONGCASA LEGENDTSUEN WAN GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 116.5

PLACE

2 16

3 37

11 21.5

QUINELLA

2,3 178

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 74.5

2,11 52

3,11 82.5

FORECAST

3,2 480

TIERCE

3,2,11 1,535

TRIO

2,3,11 193

FIRST 4

2,3,10,11 1,807

QUARTET

3,2,11,10 41,374