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Sha Tin · 2025-01-26 · 09:55

Race 11

Class 3 1650m 14 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-26 was Class 3 over 1650m. PERFECT TEAM, ridden by A Badel and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with TALENTS AMBITION second and GLORIOUS SUCCESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite SUPER UNICORN finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.38.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly P-/TT 1.38.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C Fownes 1 12.0 1/2
2 1 TALENTS AMBITION Closed strongly B/XB H Bowman · M Newnham 14 5.3 1/2
3 9 GLORIOUS SUCCESS Closed strongly B-/PC1/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 6 6.9 3/4
4 4 M UNICORN Closed strongly P/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 13.0 2-1/4
5 10 MUST GO E/PC/TT A Hamelin · J Size 7 8.6 3
6 11 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC M F Poon · P C Ng 4 22.0 3-1/4
7 6 FIGHTING MACHINE Closed strongly SR/V Z Purton · P C Ng 13 7.6 3-1/2
8 5 YOUNG BRILLIANT B Y L Chung · C H Yip 2 13.0 4
9 13 SUPER UNICORN TT K C Leung · F C Lor 5 4.4 4-1/2
10 12 CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C Fownes 12 48.0 5
11 14 RED MAJESTY B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 3 80.0 6-3/4
12 7 FRANTANCK Led early TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 8 20.0 7-1/2
13 3 CHING B Avdulla · C W Chang 11 35.0 11-1/2
14 2 SIMPLY MAVERICK L Ferraris · P F Yiu 9 41.0 18-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PERFECT TEAM2. TALENTS AMBITION+0.5L3. GLORIOUS SUCCESS+0.75L4. M UNICORN+2.25L5. MUST GO+3L6. WINNING STEPS+3.25L7. FIGHTING MACHINE+3.5L8. YOUNG BRILLIANT+4L9. SUPER UNICORN+4.5L10. CAPITAL LEGEND+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick TALENTS AMBITION (20.6%) finished 2nd — the winner PERFECT TEAM was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 TALENTS AMBITION 20.6% 4.85 2
2 9 GLORIOUS SUCCESS 15.6% 6.42 3
3 6 FIGHTING MACHINE 13.7% 7.31 7
4 13 SUPER UNICORN 6.9% 14.53 9
5 8 PERFECT TEAM 6.6% 15.25 1
6 5 YOUNG BRILLIANT 5.9% 16.87 8
7 4 M UNICORN 5.7% 17.46 4
8 10 MUST GO 5.2% 19.08 5
9 11 WINNING STEPS 4.4% 22.64 6
10 2 SIMPLY MAVERICK 3.5% 28.95 14
11 12 CAPITAL LEGEND 3.3% 30.76 10
12 7 FRANTANCK 3.1% 31.97 12
13 3 CHING 2.8% 35.34 13
14 14 RED MAJESTY 2.7% 36.79 11
TALENTS AMBITIONGLORIOUS SUCCESSFIGHTING MACHINESUPER UNICORNPERFECT TEAM — wonYOUNG BRILLIANTM UNICORNMUST GOWINNING STEPSSIMPLY MAVERICKCAPITAL LEGENDFRANTANCKCHINGRED MAJESTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 123

PLACE

1 19

8 33.5

9 26

QUINELLA

1,8 315.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 107.5

1,9 77

8,9 145.5

FORECAST

8,1 805

TIERCE

8,1,9 5,556

TRIO

1,8,9 827

FIRST 4

1,4,8,9 1,748

QUARTET

8,1,9,4 42,572

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

6/1 22

6/8 247.5

2ND TREBLE

5/6/1 361

5/6/8 2,002

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,6/1,8,9 159,582

SIX UP

2/5/3/5/6/8 45,318

2,7/1,5/3,7/5,7/5,6/1,8 2,102

1 [Z Purton]

5 [D A Hayes]