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Sha Tin · 2025-01-26 · 06:40

Race 5

Class 4 2000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-26 was Class 4 over 2000m. GOOD GOOD, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by NOSE, with BILLIONAIRE SECRET second and MANAGEMENT FOLKS third. The winner led throughout. The 4.3 favourite SOARING BRONCO finished 4th.

Result

Official · 2.02.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 GOOD GOOD Wire to wire B 2.02.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 6 6.7 NOSE
2 10 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly PC-/H/XB/B2 C Y Ho · K H Ting 4 18.0 NOSE
3 12 MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D J Hall 8 11.0 2-1/4
4 13 SOARING BRONCO PC1/TT H Bentley · P C Ng 3 4.3 2-1/2
5 2 VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B A Pouchin · P F Yiu 1 7.1 3-1/4
6 5 SERANGOON Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 11 7.8 3-1/4
7 8 HAILTOTHEVICTORS L Ferraris · D Eustace 2 14.0 3-1/2
8 9 JUBILATION Closed strongly V M L Yeung · W Y So 14 39.0 7-3/4
9 3 ACE WAR B-/XB1 A Hamelin · D J Whyte 7 127.0 8-3/4
10 14 TRADITION Closed strongly B A Badel · Y S Tsui 12 30.0 8-3/4
11 6 AFFORDABLE B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 10 16.0 8-3/4
12 1 JOYFUL PROSPERITY B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 9 5.2 9-3/4
13 4 S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly TT2 M F Poon · C H Yip 13 73.0 12-3/4
14 7 SILVER KING H/P/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 5 57.0 27-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOOD GOOD2. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+0.05L3. MANAGEMENT FOLKS+2.25L4. SOARING BRONCO+2.5L5. VOLCANIC SPARK+3.25L6. SERANGOON+3.25L7. HAILTOTHEVICTORS+3.5L8. JUBILATION+7.75L9. ACE WAR+8.75L10. TRADITION+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick JOYFUL PROSPERITY (25.8%) finished 12th — the winner GOOD GOOD was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 25.8% 3.88 12
2 13 SOARING BRONCO 15.4% 6.51 4
3 5 SERANGOON 12.6% 7.95 6
4 11 GOOD GOOD 9.3% 10.70 1
5 7 SILVER KING 5.9% 16.91 14
6 2 VOLCANIC SPARK 5.1% 19.73 5
7 10 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 4.7% 21.28 2
8 6 AFFORDABLE 4.3% 23.18 11
9 8 HAILTOTHEVICTORS 4.3% 23.43 7
10 12 MANAGEMENT FOLKS 3.9% 25.46 3
11 14 TRADITION 3.1% 31.90 10
12 9 JUBILATION 3.0% 33.37 8
13 4 S J TOURBILLON 1.7% 58.98 13
14 3 ACE WAR 0.9% 105.43 9
JOYFUL PROSPERITYSOARING BRONCOSERANGOONGOOD GOOD — wonSILVER KINGVOLCANIC SPARKBILLIONAIRE SECRETAFFORDABLEHAILTOTHEVICTORSMANAGEMENT FOLKSTRADITIONJUBILATIONS J TOURBILLONACE WAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 67.5

PLACE

10 48.5

11 27

12 34.5

QUINELLA

10,11 615

QUINELLA PLACE

10,11 225.5

10,12 324

11,12 149.5

FORECAST

11,10 1,240

TIERCE

11,10,12 13,868

TRIO

10,11,12 3,209

FIRST 4

10,11,12,13 2,248

QUARTET

11,10,12,13 73,246

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

4/6/10 229

4/6/11 320

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,13/10,11,12 58,236

4TH DOUBLE

6/10 86

6/11 158