Sha Tin · 2025-01-26 · 06:40
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-26 was Class 4 over 2000m. GOOD GOOD, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by NOSE, with BILLIONAIRE SECRET second and MANAGEMENT FOLKS third. The winner led throughout. The 4.3 favourite SOARING BRONCO finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | GOOD GOOD Wire to wire B 2.02.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 6 | 6.7 | NOSE |
| 2 | 10 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly PC-/H/XB/B2 C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 4 | 18.0 | NOSE |
| 3 | 12 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 8 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 13 | SOARING BRONCO PC1/TT H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 3 | 4.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B A Pouchin · P F Yiu | A Pouchin | P F Yiu | 1 | 7.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | SERANGOON Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 11 | 7.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | HAILTOTHEVICTORS L Ferraris · D Eustace | L Ferraris | D Eustace | 2 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | JUBILATION Closed strongly V M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 14 | 39.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | ACE WAR B-/XB1 A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 7 | 127.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 14 | TRADITION Closed strongly B A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 12 | 30.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | AFFORDABLE B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 10 | 16.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 9 | 5.2 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 4 | S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly TT2 M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 13 | 73.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 7 | SILVER KING H/P/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 5 | 57.0 | 27-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY | 25.8% | 3.88 | 12 |
| 2 | 13 | SOARING BRONCO | 15.4% | 6.51 | 4 |
| 3 | 5 | SERANGOON | 12.6% | 7.95 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | GOOD GOOD | 9.3% | 10.70 | 1 |
| 5 | 7 | SILVER KING | 5.9% | 16.91 | 14 |
| 6 | 2 | VOLCANIC SPARK | 5.1% | 19.73 | 5 |
| 7 | 10 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 4.7% | 21.28 | 2 |
| 8 | 6 | AFFORDABLE | 4.3% | 23.18 | 11 |
| 9 | 8 | HAILTOTHEVICTORS | 4.3% | 23.43 | 7 |
| 10 | 12 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS | 3.9% | 25.46 | 3 |
| 11 | 14 | TRADITION | 3.1% | 31.90 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | JUBILATION | 3.0% | 33.37 | 8 |
| 13 | 4 | S J TOURBILLON | 1.7% | 58.98 | 13 |
| 14 | 3 | ACE WAR | 0.9% | 105.43 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 67.5
PLACE
10 48.5
11 27
12 34.5
QUINELLA
10,11 615
QUINELLA PLACE
10,11 225.5
10,12 324
11,12 149.5
FORECAST
11,10 1,240
TIERCE
11,10,12 13,868
TRIO
10,11,12 3,209
FIRST 4
10,11,12,13 2,248
QUARTET
11,10,12,13 73,246
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
4/6/10 229
4/6/11 320
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,6,13/10,11,12 58,236
4TH DOUBLE
6/10 86
6/11 158