Sha Tin · 2025-01-26 · 08:15

Race 8

Class 2 1200m Course A+3 9 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-26 was Class 2 over 1200m. GORGEOUS WIN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with BABY CRYSTAL second and FULL CREDIT third. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.31

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	GORGEOUS WIN TT 1.09.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	7	129 lb	1.5	N
2	7	BABY CRYSTAL B/TT A Pouchin · K W Lui	A Pouchin	K W Lui	6	124 lb	32.0	N
3	5	FULL CREDIT L Hewitson · M Newnham	L Hewitson	M Newnham	5	127 lb	6.1	1/2
4	1	SON PAK FU B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz	B Avdulla	A S Cruz	8	132 lb	50.0	1-1/4
5	6	BUNDLE OF CHARM P- A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	9	125 lb	16.0	1-3/4
6	9	GUMMY GUMMY B M Chadwick · T P Yung	M Chadwick	T P Yung	1	120 lb	12.0	2-1/2
7	4	HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes	A Atzeni	D A Hayes	2	128 lb	23.0	3
8	2	SUPERB CAPITALIST H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	3	128 lb	16.0	3-1/2
9	8	WONDER KIT V C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	4	121 lb	12.0	4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick GORGEOUS WIN (26.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	GORGEOUS WIN	26.8%	3.73	1	1.5
2	8	WONDER KIT	20.2%	4.95	9	12.0
3	5	FULL CREDIT	11.3%	8.85	3	6.1
4	6	BUNDLE OF CHARM	9.5%	10.55	5	16.0
5	9	GUMMY GUMMY	8.8%	11.37	6	12.0
6	1	SON PAK FU	7.6%	13.11	4	50.0
7	7	BABY CRYSTAL	6.8%	14.72	2	32.0
8	2	SUPERB CAPITALIST	5.0%	19.97	8	16.0
9	4	HARMONY N BLESSED	4.0%	25.20	7	23.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 15

PLACE

3 10.1

5 17

7 58

QUINELLA

3,7 195

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 19

3,7 77.5

5,7 173.5

FORECAST

3,7 246

TIERCE

3,7,5 736

TRIO

3,5,7 146

FIRST 4

1,3,5,7 1,070

QUARTET

3,7,5,1 11,090

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

5/3 126

5/7 193

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