Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2025-01-26 · 07:45

Race 7

Class 4 1650m 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-26 was Class 4 over 1650m. NEVER PETER OUT, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by F C Lor, won by HD, with ARIEL second and LUCKY TOUCH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite SPANGLE FORTUNE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.38.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 NEVER PETER OUT Closed strongly V/TT 1.38.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · F C Lor 11 9.1 HD
2 1 ARIEL B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 1 6.2 HD
3 2 LUCKY TOUCH Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · J Richards 5 6.0 HD
4 6 VIVA CHALEUR Closed strongly H/PC/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng 3 19.0 2-1/4
5 7 SIGHT SUPREME Closed strongly B B Avdulla · J Size 14 8.3 3-1/4
6 4 THESIS Closed strongly TT A Badel · Y S Tsui 10 13.0 4
7 11 SPANGLE FORTUNE Led early B/TT P N Wong · K L Man 7 3.7 6-1/4
8 13 DAILY TROPHY B2/TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 4 17.0 6-1/2
9 9 HEALTHY GOLF XB L Hewitson · M Newnham 2 172.0 6-3/4
10 10 EXCEL WONGCHOY H/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 8 8.9 7-1/4
11 3 SHANGHAI STYLE B/TT- H Bowman · C S Shum 9 19.0 8
12 12 STARMEN H/P/TT2 K Teetan · P F Yiu 12 45.0 8-1/4
13 14 UNITED ENDEAVORS H/TT H T Mo · W Y So 13 118.0 24-1/2
14 8 SIKANDAR CP/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 159.0 24-3/4
0 HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER Y L Chung · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NEVER PETER OUT2. ARIEL+0.2L3. LUCKY TOUCH+0.2L4. VIVA CHALEUR+2.25L5. SIGHT SUPREME+3.25L6. THESIS+4L7. SPANGLE FORTUNE+6.25L8. DAILY TROPHY+6.5L9. HEALTHY GOLF+6.75L10. EXCEL WONGCHOY+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LUCKY TOUCH (15.6%) finished 3rd — the winner NEVER PETER OUT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 LUCKY TOUCH 15.6% 6.42 3
2 5 NEVER PETER OUT 13.5% 7.41 1
3 7 SIGHT SUPREME 12.8% 7.82 5
4 11 SPANGLE FORTUNE 11.3% 8.84 7
5 10 EXCEL WONGCHOY 8.6% 11.63 10
6 3 SHANGHAI STYLE 8.2% 12.25 11
7 4 THESIS 6.7% 14.91 6
8 1 ARIEL 6.6% 15.16 2
9 6 VIVA CHALEUR 6.3% 15.98 4
10 13 DAILY TROPHY 5.6% 17.99 8
11 12 STARMEN 2.2% 45.53 12
12 14 UNITED ENDEAVORS 1.7% 58.49 13
13 8 SIKANDAR 0.5% 190.31 14
14 9 HEALTHY GOLF 0.5% 195.26 9
LUCKY TOUCHNEVER PETER OUT — wonSIGHT SUPREMESPANGLE FORTUNEEXCEL WONGCHOYSHANGHAI STYLETHESISARIELVIVA CHALEURDAILY TROPHYSTARMENUNITED ENDEAVORSSIKANDARHEALTHY GOLF

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 91

PLACE

1 22.5

2 22.5

5 26.5

QUINELLA

1,5 265.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 78.5

1,5 86.5

2,5 77

FORECAST

5,1 523

TIERCE

5,1,2 3,177

TRIO

1,2,5 532

FIRST 4

1,2,5,6 2,125

QUARTET

5,1,2,6 50,750

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,11/1,2,5 13,086

6TH DOUBLE

2/1 54

2/5 254

TRIPLE TRIO

10,11,12/2,7,11/1,2,5 3,449,676

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

10,11,12/2,7,11/Any Combination 32,282