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Sha Tin · 2024-02-12 · 09:19

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course A 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-12 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by 1, with GALAXY PATCH second and BUNDLE OF CHARM third. The 1.7 favourite GALAXY PATCH finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 1.08.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 6 18.0 1
2 5 GALAXY PATCH B K Teetan · P C Ng 9 1.7 1
3 11 BUNDLE OF CHARM P- A Hamelin · J Size 11 25.0 1-1/2
4 1 PACKING TREADMILL SR L Hewitson · K W Lui 7 25.0 2
5 13 LUCKY ENCOUNTER H A Atzeni · D A Hayes 3 5.5 2
6 4 INVINCIBLE SAGE A Badel · D J Hall 8 16.0 2-3/4
7 2 FLYING ACE B Z Purton · D J Hall 12 15.0 3-1/4
8 8 MAJESTIC KNIGHT B H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 8.7 3-1/4
9 9 REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 10 131.0 3-1/2
10 6 GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP/TT H T Mo · P F Yiu 2 59.0 5
11 7 BEAUTY CHARGE H/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 13 55.0 5
12 12 ASTROLOGER SR B Thompson · K L Man 1 164.0 5-3/4
13 10 WE ARE HERO V/TT Y L Chung · K L Man 4 61.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE2. GALAXY PATCH+1L3. BUNDLE OF CHARM+1.5L4. PACKING TREADMILL+2L5. LUCKY ENCOUNTER+2L6. INVINCIBLE SAGE+2.75L7. FLYING ACE+3.25L8. MAJESTIC KNIGHT+3.25L9. REWARDING TOGETHER+3.5L10. GOOD LUCK FRIEND+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GALAXY PATCH (43.8%) finished 2nd — the winner HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 GALAXY PATCH 43.8% 2.29 2
2 4 INVINCIBLE SAGE 10.4% 9.61 6
3 8 MAJESTIC KNIGHT 9.0% 11.13 8
4 13 LUCKY ENCOUNTER 8.2% 12.18 5
5 2 FLYING ACE 6.3% 15.86 7
6 1 PACKING TREADMILL 4.7% 21.44 4
7 11 BUNDLE OF CHARM 4.2% 24.06 3
8 7 BEAUTY CHARGE 3.6% 27.94 11
9 10 WE ARE HERO 3.6% 27.98 13
10 3 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 2.4% 40.95 1
11 6 GOOD LUCK FRIEND 1.6% 62.76 10
12 9 REWARDING TOGETHER 1.2% 80.85 9
13 12 ASTROLOGER 1.1% 91.20 12
GALAXY PATCHINVINCIBLE SAGEMAJESTIC KNIGHTLUCKY ENCOUNTERFLYING ACEPACKING TREADMILLBUNDLE OF CHARMBEAUTY CHARGEWE ARE HEROHOWDEEPISYOURLOVE — wonGOOD LUCK FRIENDREWARDING TOGETHERASTROLOGER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 188.5

PLACE

3 36.5

5 10.5

11 52

QUINELLA

3,5 117.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 45

3,11 316

5,11 67.5

FORECAST

3,5 454

TIERCE

3,5,11 4,457

TRIO

3,5,11 526

FIRST 4

1,3,5,11 1,853

QUARTET

3,5,11,1 81,465

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

5/3 1,142

5/5 25