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Sha Tin · 2024-02-12 · 07:09

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. VOYAGE SAMURAI, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with SMILING COLLECTOR second and VOLCANIC SPARK third. The winner led throughout. The 3.0 favourite GOLDEN RISE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.22.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 VOYAGE SAMURAI Wire to wire 1.22.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 7 8.3 N
2 11 SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · K H Ting 5 14.0 N
3 6 VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B M F Poon · P F Yiu 14 14.0 1-1/4
4 8 INVINCIBLE LUCKY Closed strongly M Chadwick · M Newnham 11 8.7 1-1/2
5 3 GOLDEN RISE Z Purton · J Size 13 3.0 2
6 14 MR GOOD VIBES B A Badel · D J Hall 1 16.0 3-1/4
7 7 DOUBLE WIN XB/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 6 6.1 3-3/4
8 5 FORERUNNER Closed strongly TT1 B Avdulla · W K Mo 12 73.0 4
9 12 WINNING HEART B/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 2 16.0 4-3/4
10 2 BONUS PAL B-/V1 K Teetan · P C Ng 4 119.0 5-1/4
11 1 SETANTA B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 3 20.0 5-1/2
12 4 HAPPY DAILY TT2 Y L Chung · C H Yip 10 8.6 6
13 10 MR MAESTRO XB/B1/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 8 29.0 13-3/4
13 SMART FOLKS A Hamelin · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VOYAGE SAMURAI2. SMILING COLLECTOR+0.05L3. VOLCANIC SPARK+1.25L4. INVINCIBLE LUCKY+1.5L5. GOLDEN RISE+2L6. MR GOOD VIBES+3.25L7. DOUBLE WIN+3.75L8. FORERUNNER+4L9. WINNING HEART+4.75L10. BONUS PAL+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GOLDEN RISE (22.4%) finished 5th — the winner VOYAGE SAMURAI was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 GOLDEN RISE 22.4% 4.47 5
2 9 VOYAGE SAMURAI 10.1% 9.89 1
3 7 DOUBLE WIN 9.8% 10.25 7
4 6 VOLCANIC SPARK 9.7% 10.31 3
5 14 MR GOOD VIBES 8.3% 12.08 6
6 1 SETANTA 7.0% 14.29 11
7 8 INVINCIBLE LUCKY 6.9% 14.57 4
8 4 HAPPY DAILY 6.5% 15.40 12
9 12 WINNING HEART 6.0% 16.58 9
10 10 MR MAESTRO 5.0% 20.03 13
11 11 SMILING COLLECTOR 4.8% 20.85 2
12 5 FORERUNNER 2.6% 38.26 8
13 2 BONUS PAL 1.0% 99.77 10
GOLDEN RISEVOYAGE SAMURAI — wonDOUBLE WINVOLCANIC SPARKMR GOOD VIBESSETANTAINVINCIBLE LUCKYHAPPY DAILYWINNING HEARTMR MAESTROSMILING COLLECTORFORERUNNERBONUS PAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 83

PLACE

6 45.5

9 30

11 41

QUINELLA

9,11 712.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 224

6,11 283.5

9,11 205.5

FORECAST

9,11 1,296

TIERCE

9,11,6 17,291

TRIO

6,9,11 3,761

FIRST 4

6,8,9,11 6,527

QUARTET

9,11,6,8 162,200

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

2/9 788

2/11 267